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The 1.5°C Overshoot Pathway
Coverage from The Conversation, Energy and Climate Index, and others
UNEP’s 1.
5°C overshoot assessments examine the distance between climate commitments and the emissions cuts needed to limit warming, as well as what happens if temperatures temporarily exceed the Paris Agreement’s threshold. The scenarios described in these assessments contrast substantially different warming outcomes under current policies and more ambitious action, while prolonged overshoot raises risks to health, food and water security, ecosystems, and climate systems such as ice sheets and ocean circulation. The pathway combines rapid emissions reductions and adaptation with carbon dioxide removal, alongside the finance and cooperation needed to carry out climate action.
The assessment largely reinforces the existing overshoot outlook, while distinguishing a 2.6°C projection under full national pledges from about 2.8°C under current policies. It also explicitly links longer, higher overshoot to risks for ecosystems, health, food and water security.
The latest assessment makes the outlook more definitive: avoiding any 1.5°C overshoot is now described as infeasible. It also quantifies the steep emissions cuts and large-scale carbon removal required to limit overshoot.
UNEP now projects that sustained warming will likely cross 1.5°C within the next several years, making overshoot a near-term prospect rather than a general risk under inadequate plans.
UNEP assessments indicate that current climate plans and policies are not sufficient to keep warming within the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit. The articles cite different projections depending on the scenario, ranging from about 1.8°C with fuller delivery of pledges and net-zero commitments to higher outcomes under current plans or policies. The projected gap underscores the need for faster emissions cuts alongside adaptation, climate finance and, if warming overshoots the limit, possible carbon dioxide removal.