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Last Update: 10/25/2026 at 11:33 PM EST
The 1.5°C Overshoot Pathway
Coverage from The Conversation, Energy and Climate Index, and others
UNEP’s 1.
5°C overshoot assessments examine the distance between climate commitments and the emissions cuts needed to limit warming, as well as what happens if temperatures temporarily exceed the Paris Agreement’s threshold. The scenarios described in these assessments contrast substantially different warming outcomes under current policies and more ambitious action, while prolonged overshoot raises risks to health, food and water security, ecosystems, and climate systems such as ice sheets and ocean circulation. The pathway combines rapid emissions reductions and adaptation with carbon dioxide removal, alongside the finance and cooperation needed to carry out climate action.
Key Articles4 of 73 articles
If you read one thing
This UNEP overview introduces the overshoot pathway and its core responses: emissions cuts, adaptation, and carefully governed carbon removal.
The evidence
It gives a detailed account of the emissions gap, including the scale and pace of cuts needed to limit overshoot.
Best explainer
It explains why returning below 1.5°C cannot undo all overshoot harms and why adaptation and equitable finance matter.
The evidence
It adds a focused account of carbon removal’s possible contribution and its limits alongside rapid fossil-fuel cuts.
Key Issues
Climate plans leave a large overshoot gap
Current policies and national pledges point to warming well above 1.5°C, and even the most ambitious modeled pathways peak above it. Avoiding overshoot is now described as infeasible; the task is to limit its height and duration through steep emissions cuts.
Strengthening
Longer, higher overshoot compounds lasting harm
Each additional increment of warming and time above 1.5°C increases risks to health, food and water security, ecosystems, and economies. Potentially irreversible changes to ice sheets, the Amazon, and Atlantic circulation mean later cooling would not undo all damage.
Carbon removal may aid recovery but cannot carry the pathway
Returning below 1.5°C after overshoot may require net-negative emissions and substantial carbon removal alongside deep cuts. Uncertain performance, cost, permanence, and scalability constrain its role: it is a complement to emissions reductions, not a substitute.
Key Numbers
1.5°C
global warming threshold
“For more than a decade, the world has been trying to limit global warming to 1.5°C. A new United Nations report says that is no longer possible and that the threshold will likely be exceeded in 2030.”
every five years
delay in reducing emissions
“Report co-author Joeri Rogelj of Imperial College London said every five years of delay in reducing emissions adds at least a tenth of a degree to peak warming.”
at least a tenth of a degree °C
increase in peak warming
“Every five years of delay in cutting emissions adds at least a tenth of a degree to peak warming, according to co-author Joeri Rogelj of Imperial College London.”
38.4 billion tonnes
global carbon dioxide emissions in 2025
“Climate policy has not matched technological progress. Global fossil-fuel consumption has continued to rise, and the International Energy Agency says carbon dioxide emissions reached a record 38.4 billion tonnes in 2025, about 5 percent above 2019 levels.”
5 percent
increase in emissions relative to 2019
“Climate policy has not matched technological progress. Global fossil-fuel consumption has continued to rise, and the International Energy Agency says carbon dioxide emissions reached a record 38.4 billion tonnes in 2025, about 5 percent above 2019 levels.”
Looking Back
343 Day Timeline
Nov 17 '25
Jan 12 '26
Mar 9 '26
May 4 '26
Jun 29 '26
Aug 24 '26
Oct 19 '26
The Story So Far
No material change
The new article reiterates that current pledges fall short and that limiting overshoot would require rapid emissions cuts and carbon removal; it adds no material change to the established picture.
Previously
UNEP assessments published in September and October 2026 indicate that sustained warming is likely to exceed 1.5°C in the coming years. The October Emissions Gap Report finds that even its lowest-overshoot pathway reaches roughly 1.7–1.8°C before a possible return toward 1.5°C later this century. Current-policy projections remain around 2.6–2.8°C by 2100. The modeled lower-warming pathways require rapid emissions reductions, expanded adaptation and substantial carbon dioxide removal, whose feasibility at the required scale remains uncertain.
History
10/25/2026
The latest assessment makes the outlook more definitive: avoiding any 1.5°C overshoot is now described as infeasible. It also quantifies the steep emissions cuts and large-scale carbon removal required to limit overshoot.
10/14/2026
UNEP now projects that sustained warming will likely cross 1.5°C within the next several years, making overshoot a near-term prospect rather than a general risk under inadequate plans.
All Articles73 articles
Important
A United Nations climate assessment warns that global warming is approaching and likely exceeding 1.5 C worldwide, increasing risks while leaving deeper warming avoidable through rapid fossil fuel phaseout.
9/7/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
UNEP reported in 2025 that current global policies could drive approximately 2.6°C warming by 2100 worldwide, despite pathways limiting peak warming near 1.8°C.
9/9/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
The United Nations Environment Programme reported in 2024 that governments must reduce emissions rapidly and prepare for warming overshoot through adaptation and carbon dioxide removal.
9/2/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
The United Nations Environment Programme reported in September 2026 that temporary global warming above 1.5°C could intensify irreversible risks worldwide and requires faster emissions cuts, adaptation, and carbon removal.
10/22/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
In September, climate scientist Debra Roberts presented UNEP's overshoot report at the Chinese University of Hong Kong, outlining emissions cuts and adaptation needs as warming approaches 1.5 C.
10/7/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
Climate scientists warn that continued warming could trigger tipping points, including AMOC collapse, with major risks for Europe and other regions this century.
9/24/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
Global climate monitoring agencies and researchers reported in 2026 that rising temperatures, extreme weather, and Himalayan glacier hazards require faster emissions cuts and adaptation worldwide.
9/17/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
The United Nations Environment Programme reported that global warming is likely to exceed 1.5°C within several years, with current policies producing 2.6°C warming by 2100 worldwide.
9/2/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
The United Nations reported in 2026 that global warming will likely exceed 1.5°C around 2030, increasing risks for Pacific islands and other vulnerable regions.
9/2/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
The UN Environment Programme reported globally that warming will likely exceed 1.5C within the next few years, while rapid emissions cuts could limit and eventually reverse some warming.
9/7/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
The United Nations Environment Programme reported Wednesday that global warming will likely exceed 1.5C within several years worldwide, requiring faster emissions cuts and carbon removal to limit overshoot.
9/6/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
The UN report Limiting Overshoot says global warming will likely exceed 1.5°C within years, requiring faster mitigation and adaptation worldwide, including in New Zealand.
9/2/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
The United Nations Environment Programme reported that global temperatures will likely exceed 1.5°C within years, requiring rapid emissions cuts, adaptation, and carbon removal worldwide.
9/2/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
The United Nations Environment Programme reported that fossil fuel emissions will likely push global warming above 1.5 C within years, requiring faster mitigation and adaptation worldwide.
9/2/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
UNEP said in its latest emissions-gap assessment that current policies could produce 2.8 C of warming by 2100, while the lowest-warming pathway peaks at 1.7-1.8 C globally.
10/21/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
The UN Environment Programme and climate scientists reported that governments must limit warming near 1.8C through rapid mitigation to retain a possible return to 1.5C by 2100.
9/2/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
The United Nations Environment Programme reported that global temperatures will likely exceed 1.5C within several years, requiring faster emissions cuts and carbon removal worldwide.
9/2/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
Laurence Tubiana warned that projected global warming above 1.5C within roughly three years could cause lasting ecological and social damage worldwide.
9/2/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
The United Nations Environment Programme reported that global temperatures will likely exceed 1.5 C within several years, requiring rapid emissions cuts, adaptation, and carbon removal worldwide.
9/2/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
The United Nations Environment Programme says rapid global emissions cuts are needed within the next decade to limit 1.5C overshoot and reduce irreversible climate risks worldwide.
9/2/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
UNEP's Limiting Overshoot report explains that, as global warming approaches 1.5°C, governments worldwide need emissions cuts, adaptation, and sustained finance to manage prolonged climate risks.
9/21/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
The United Nations Environment Programme warned in its 2025 special report that prolonged global warming above 1.5 degrees Celsius could intensify disasters and weaken climate financing worldwide.
9/4/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
UNEP warned ahead of COP30 in Brazil that countries must sharply cut emissions by 2030 and 2035 to constrain global warming.
10/21/2026 • Policy & Regulation & Governance • General
UNEP's latest emissions assessment warns that global warming could reach 1.8 C under existing pledges and 2.6 C under current policies by 2100.
9/29/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
The UN Environment Programme warned in the 2020s that current policies could push global warming beyond 1.5°C worldwide within coming years, increasing extreme weather and climate risks.
9/2/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
In 2026, UNEP warned that the world will breach 1.5°C of warming, while continued emissions cuts could limit overshoot globally.
10/25/2026 • Policy & Regulation & Governance • General
Following 2024's annual 1.5-degree Celsius exceedance, UNEP published its Limiting Overshoot report to assess global warming pathways and risks worldwide.
10/15/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
The United Nations Environment Programme reported last week that continued global emissions growth has made the Paris Agreement's 1.5-degree warming limit increasingly unattainable worldwide.
9/8/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
The United Nations Environment Programme reported that continued fossil fuel use could push global warming above 1.5C this century, increasing risks worldwide despite renewable energy cost declines.
9/8/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
Two University of Kansas researchers said in a recent study that global warming could reach 1.5°C by 2028, based on temperature records through 2025 and an extrapolation of accelerating warming worldwide.
10/17/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
The United Nations Environment Programme and World Meteorological Organization warn in recent reports that global heating will exceed 1.5 degrees, worsening extreme weather in Ireland and worldwide.
9/6/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
UNEP projected in its latest assessment that global temperatures could reach 2.6 C above pre-industrial levels by 2100 under submitted national pledges, with current policies implying 2.8 C.
10/21/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
The United Nations Environment Programme said in its latest global report that US policy changes and rising emissions worsen warming projections worldwide.
10/21/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
UNEP reported after widespread extreme weather that global warming is likely to exceed 1.5C, urging faster emissions cuts, adaptation finance, and carbon removal worldwide.
9/21/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
The United Nations Environment Programme reported globally that warming could exceed 1.5°C within years and requires rapid emissions cuts to limit and reverse the overshoot.
9/16/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
The United Nations Environment Programme said a new report finds global warming may exceed 1.5°C within years unless governments rapidly reduce emissions, expand carbon removal, and strengthen adaptation worldwide.
9/9/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
UN report Limiting Overshoot warns that global warming will likely exceed 1.5°C within years, prompting New Zealand experts to call for faster mitigation and adaptation worldwide.
9/8/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
The UN Environment Programme reports that global warming will likely exceed 1.5C in coming years worldwide, while urging faster fossil-fuel reductions, adaptation, and governed carbon removal.
9/7/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
The United Nations Environment Programme projects near-term 1.5°C warming overshoot worldwide and calls for faster emissions cuts, carbon removal, and adaptation finance.
9/19/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
The United Nations Environment Programme reported in the 2020s that warming could exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius globally, requiring immediate emissions cuts and later net-negative emissions.
9/3/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
The United Nations Environment Programme reported that countries worldwide are nearing a dangerous climate threshold because emissions reductions remain insufficient to meet the Paris Agreement's 1.5-degree goal.
9/2/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
The United Nations Environment Programme reported that global warming will likely exceed 1.5 C within years, requiring emissions cuts, adaptation, and carbon removal worldwide.
9/2/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
In 2026, UNEP reported globally that current national climate pledges leave emissions reductions far below levels needed to limit warming and return toward 1.5°C.
10/21/2026 • Policy & Regulation & Governance • General
The United Nations warned globally that likely 1.5-degree Celsius threshold exceedance will intensify climate impacts while United States companies expand clean-energy projects.
9/7/2026 • Clean Energy & Emissions • General
The United Nations Environment Programme reported in its Limiting Overshoot assessment that global warming could exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius within years before potentially declining later this century.
9/8/2026 • Policy, Politics & Governance • General
In 2026, the UN Environment Programme's Emissions Gap Report said global emissions cuts must accelerate to limit 1.5C overshoot and return warming to 1.5C by 2100.
10/21/2026 • Policy & Regulation & Governance • General
The United Nations Environment Programme reported that global warming will likely overshoot 1.5°C within years, requiring governments worldwide to accelerate emissions cuts, carbon removal, and adaptation planning.
9/2/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
Interesting
The UN Secretary-General's Climate Summit will convene governments, development banks, businesses, finance and civil society on 23 September at UN Headquarters in New York to advance emissions cuts, climate finance and resilience.
9/21/2026 • Policy, Politics & Governance • General
UN Environment Programme projected in its annual climate assessment, released on 21 October 2026 ahead of COP31 in Antalya, that current policies would lead to 2.6-2.8 C of global warming this century.
10/21/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
The United Nations Environment Programme reported on 21 October 2026 that current policies project 2.6-2.8 C of warming this century, ahead of COP31 in Antalya, Turkey.
10/21/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
The United Nations Environment Programme reported in the 2020s that warming will likely exceed 1.5°C, requiring rapid mitigation, carbon removal and adaptation worldwide.
9/10/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
A United Nations report says in 2026 that global warming will likely exceed 1.5 C around 2030, with Pacific Island communities facing heightened risks.
9/9/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
The United Nations released a global report warning that warming will exceed 1.5°C and urging governments to reduce emissions while assessing carbon removal and solar geoengineering risks.
9/2/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
The United Nations Environment Programme reported that global temperatures will likely exceed 1.5°C within several years, requiring worldwide emissions cuts, adaptation, and carbon removal.
9/2/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
In its annual Emissions Gap Report, the UN says current national climate plans put the world on course for 2.6C warming by the end of the century.
10/22/2026 • Policy & Regulation & Governance • General
UNEP warns in its climate assessment that existing pledges could allow global warming to reach 1.8°C later this century, increasing risks worldwide.
9/21/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
UNEP published a climate overshoot report on 2 September 2026, while Climate Analytics criticized its limited mitigation analysis and emphasis on transformational adaptation.
9/2/2026 • Policy, Politics & Governance • General
More than 70 scientists from nearly 30 countries released the 2026/2027 10 New Insights in Climate Science report as a global synthesis, warning that overshooting 1.5C raises irreversible risks.
11/17/2025 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
In its latest global assessment, UNEP projected that national pledges would yield 2.6 C warming by 2100, with U.S. emissions and Paris Agreement withdrawal worsening the outlook.
10/21/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
The United Nations Environment Programme warned in a new global report that delayed emissions cuts make 1.5C warming almost unavoidable and increase future adaptation costs.
9/2/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
UNEP released its Emissions Gap Report 2026 on Wednesday, warning globally that current policies could cause 2.8 degrees C of warming this century while rapid emissions cuts could restore the 1.5-degree target by 2100.
10/21/2026 • Policy & Regulation & Governance • General
In 2026, UNEP warned that global emissions cuts and large-scale carbon removal are needed to return warming to 1.5 C by 2100.
10/22/2026 • Policy & Regulation & Governance • General
In its 2026 global assessment, the United Nations Environment Programme says countries must sharply cut emissions to limit the scale and duration of 1.5°C overshoot.
10/21/2026 • Clean Energy & Emissions • General
UNEP released its 2026 Emissions Gap Report in London, warning that current policies could produce 2.8 degrees Celsius of warming this century.
10/21/2026 • Clean Energy & Emissions • General
On 21 October 2026, UNEP reported globally that a return to 1.5C by 2100 remains possible with rapid emissions cuts and permanent carbon removal.
10/21/2026 • Clean Energy & Emissions • General
A United Nations assessment concludes in the 2020s that global warming will exceed 1.5°C within years worldwide, intensifying the need for emissions cuts and adaptation.
9/2/2026 • Adaptation & Resilience • General
A United Nations report warns that global temperatures may exceed 1.5°C within the next few years worldwide, while faster emissions reductions and adaptation could alter long-term outcomes.
9/2/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
The United Nations Environment Programme said in its latest global assessment that current national pledges still imply 2.6°C of warming by 2100, with the United States contributing to a worsening outlook.
10/21/2026 • Policy & Regulation & Governance • General
The United Nations Environment Programme said in the 2020s that global warming is likely to overshoot 1.5C, despite cheaper renewable energy and stronger climate technologies worldwide.
9/8/2026 • Policy, Politics & Governance • General
The United Nations Environment Programme released an assessment in Paris outlining emissions cuts and carbon removal needed to limit and reverse a likely global 1.5°C overshoot.
9/2/2026 • Policy, Politics & Governance • General
UNEP said in its latest annual assessment that current national policies put the world on a 2.8C warming path, underscoring a global emissions gap.
10/23/2026 • Policy & Regulation & Governance • General
In its 2026 global assessment, UNEP said the 1.5 degrees C warming threshold will be overshot, while rapid emissions cuts can limit the overshoot and enable later cooling.
10/21/2026 • Policy & Regulation & Governance • General
UNEP's 2026 Emissions Gap Report says global governments must sharply reduce emissions this decade to limit warming overshoot and potentially return to 1.5C by 2100.
10/21/2026 • Clean Energy & Emissions • General