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Last Update: 10/26/2026 at 11:33 PM EST
Southern European Wildfire Risk
Coverage from Science Advances, Eos, and others
Research on Southern European wildfires examines how human-caused warming affects the hot, dry, and windy conditions that enable fires, as well as the damage and disruption they cause.
World Weather Attribution analyses of fires near Bordeaux and Madrid have estimated substantially higher odds of extreme fire weather in both France and Spain, while regional studies track changes in the frequency and intensity of fire-weather days. Heat and drought interact with wind, humidity, vegetation growth, and land management: a wet period can build fuel that later dries, and abandoned farmland or reduced grazing can affect how fires spread.
Key Articles4 of 108 articles
If you read one thing
It introduces the central attribution findings while explaining how wet-season growth and later dryness can add fuel.
Best explainer
It adds useful context on the attribution estimates and clarifies that evidence is stronger for extreme heat than for drought or wildfire itself.
The evidence
It provides research evidence on warming-driven fire-weather extremes occurring across multiple European countries at the same time.
The evidence
It connects the attribution findings to research on rising fire-weather intensity and the erosion of earlier fire-management gains.
Key Issues
Warming is intensifying fire weather
Human-caused warming has substantially raised the likelihood and intensity of extreme fire-weather conditions in Southern Europe, with attribution estimates especially large for central Spain and material increases also reported for France. Regional analyses also show more annual extreme-fire-weather days and stronger extremes than in earlier decades.
Strengthening
Extreme fire weather is becoming more synchronized
Fire-weather extremes are increasingly occurring across multiple regions at the same time, a pattern linked in research to human-caused warming. This overlap can make fires harder to manage by increasing the chance that regions face high fire danger simultaneously.
Strengthening
Wet-to-dry weather shifts add combustible fuel
Wet winters or springs can produce abundant vegetation that later dries under heat and drought, adding fuel to landscapes already exposed to fire-prone weather. Reporting also identifies rural depopulation and land-use changes as contributors in some affected areas.
Earlier fire-management gains are being eroded
Earlier declines in Southern European fire activity associated with improved suppression and land management have reversed in recent years, as hotter, drier conditions and fuel buildup favor more severe fires. The evidence describes pressure on prior gains, not the failure of all prevention or response efforts.
Strengthening
Key Numbers
February 2026
wettest February in Portugal
“February 2026 was Portugal’s wettest February in 47 years. Across much of mainland Portugal, rainfall reached three to four times the normal monthly amount.”
three to four times
normal monthly rainfall
“February 2026 was Portugal’s wettest February in 47 years. Across much of mainland Portugal, rainfall reached three to four times the normal monthly amount.”
91% percent
reduction in cumulative soil loss
“It strips vegetation that protects soil from rainfall and can increase soil water repellency, affecting infiltration, runoff and erosion. On slopes that have recently burned, the first storm of the next rainy season can become a hazard in its own right. In a burned eucalyptus plantation in central Portugal, researchers found that applying forest-residue mulch reduced cumulative soil loss by 91% over five years.”
4,200 football fields
area irrigated by the reported wells and ponds
“WWF Spain estimated that in 2016 more than 1,000 illegal wells and over 1,700 ponds in the Doñana wetland were irrigating an area equivalent to 4,200 football fields.”
more than 1,000 wells
illegal wells used for irrigation in the Doñana wetland
“WWF Spain estimated that in 2016 more than 1,000 illegal wells and over 1,700 ponds in the Doñana wetland were irrigating an area equivalent to 4,200 football fields.”
Looking Back
903 Day Timeline
Feb 11
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Sep 16
The Story So Far
No material change
No new member articles were supplied, so there is no evidence of a material change since the prior state.
Previously
Climate attribution researchers found that human-caused warming made the hot, dry and windy conditions associated with severe wildfires substantially more likely in central Spain and southwestern France. Separate research points to more frequent and intense extreme fire-weather days across Southern Europe, while drought, accumulated vegetation and land management also shape local risk. The findings describe changing conditions favorable to fires, not a direct attribution of every fire or its full impact.
All Articles108 articles
Important
Researchers evaluate 1979 2024 fire weather data across GFED regions to attribute increases in synchronous fire weather to anthropogenic climate change.
2/18/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
World Weather Attribution reported that climate change increased wildfire-conducive conditions in southwestern France and central Spain during the 2020s, intensifying fires that burned 255,000 hectares.
7/30/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
World Weather Attribution researchers reported that human-caused climate change greatly increased the likelihood of July heat and wildfire conditions in central Spain and southwestern France.
7/31/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
World Weather Attribution researchers reported that human-caused climate change intensified July wildfire conditions in southwestern France and central Spain, where fires displaced more than 300,000 people.
7/31/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
World Weather Attribution found that human-caused climate change intensified wildfire conditions across southwestern France and central Spain during the latest European fire season.
7/31/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
World Weather Attribution scientists reported Friday that climate change sharply increased destructive fire-weather conditions during megafires near Bordeaux, France, and Madrid, Spain.
7/30/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
World Weather Attribution found during Europe's wildfire season that human-caused warming sharply increased extreme fire weather across France and Spain.
7/30/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
World Weather Attribution and Scientific Reports researchers reported on July 30, 2026, that human-caused warming intensified wildfire weather across Spain, France, and Southern Europe.
7/30/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
World Weather Attribution and Scientific Reports researchers found Thursday that human-caused warming intensified wildfire weather in Spain, France, and Southern Europe.
7/30/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
Using ERA5, burned-area observations, and CMIP6 simulations, a European study attributes a 14.8% rise in synchronized extreme fire-weather extent over the past decade primarily to temperature changes.
4/1/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
Researchers find a global anthropogenic signal increasing extreme fire weather days between 1980 and 2023.
3/16/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
World Weather Attribution scientists reported Friday that human-caused climate change increased extreme wildfire conditions in southwestern France and central Spain, where ongoing fires prompted mass evacuations.
7/31/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
French climate scientists and fire agencies reported in 2025 that human ignition remains the main wildfire trigger, while climate change intensified heat and drought conditions across France and southern Europe.
8/6/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
World Weather Attribution researchers found during recent fires that climate change greatly increased extreme wildfire conditions in Spain and France, while Southern Europe experienced more frequent and intense fire-weather days.
7/31/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
World Weather Attribution scientists found in a 2020s analysis that climate change substantially increased extreme wildfire conditions in Spain and France during July.
7/31/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
World Weather Attribution found that human-caused climate change sharply increased wildfire-conducive conditions in France and central Spain during a severe European wildfire season.
7/31/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
World Weather Attribution scientists said on July 31 that human-caused climate change increased extreme wildfire-conducive weather in southwestern France and central Spain.
7/30/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
World Weather Attribution and Scientific Reports researchers reported Thursday that human-caused warming intensified extreme wildfire conditions in Spain, France, and Southern Europe.
7/30/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
World Weather Attribution researchers found that human-caused warming has increased severe fire-weather conditions around Bordeaux and Madrid, where major wildfires threatened communities in Southern Europe.
7/30/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
MIT scientists analyze global temperature responses to Pinatubo eruption 1991, Australian wildfires 2019-2020, and Hunga Tonga eruption 2022 to separate natural signals from anthropogenic warming.
2/24/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
World Weather Attribution researchers reported on Wednesday that human-driven warming sharply increased January wildfire risk in central-southern Chile and Argentinas Patagonia, where heat, drought, plantations, and constrained firefighting capacity amplified damage.
2/11/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
World Weather Attribution study links 2024 Amazon and Pantanal fires to anthropogenic climate change in South America.
2/26/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
World Weather Attribution scientists said Friday that climate change increased the likelihood of wildfire-fueling heat, drought, and wind conditions in France and Spain.
7/31/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
Researchers find climate change has increased global synchronous fire weather days since the late 20th century.
2/22/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
Researchers report on Feb 18, 2026 that synchronous fire weather across 14 regions has more than doubled globally from 1979 to 2024, driven mainly by human-caused warming.
2/20/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
World Weather Attribution researchers reported in early 2026 that human-driven climate warming sharply increased the likelihood of recent severe wildfires in Chile and Argentinas Patagonia.
2/11/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
World Weather Attribution researchers concluded in February 2026 that human-driven warming sharply increased January wildfire-weather risk in Chile and Argentinas Patagonia.
2/11/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
WWA scientists release analysis on February 11 2026 linking climate change to heightened wildfire risk in southern Chile and Argentina.
2/11/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
Researchers report global synchronous fire weather days nearly tripled worldwide over 45 years due to fossil fuel driven climate change.
2/18/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
MIT researchers identify natural event signals affecting global temperatures using satellite data from 1986 to present worldwide.
2/23/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
World Weather Attribution released a February 2026 analysis concluding that human-driven warming greatly increased the likelihood of the catastrophic January 2026 wildfires in Chile and Argentinas Patagonia.
2/11/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
Spain faced record July heat, climate-intensified wildfires, drought and flooding in 2025, causing evacuations, deaths, economic disruption and worsening water stress nationwide.
8/1/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
European wildfires intensified in France and Spain during successive summer heatwaves as climate change increased the likelihood of extreme fire-weather conditions.
7/31/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
Spain and France wildfires are escalating during Western Europe heatwaves as climate attribution studies link extreme June heat to climate change.
7/28/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
European Forest Fire Information System data showed severe 2026 wildfire activity in France and Spain by 29 July, while broader charts masked impacts by including below-average Russian fires.
7/30/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
Researchers found in 2025 that children born in Europe will face substantially more extreme fire weather during their lifetimes under current climate policies.
9/21/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
Scientists report increasingly severe wildfires across Europe and North America as climate warming dries landscapes, while Copernicus records declining global fire emissions driven by changing land use.
7/29/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
French officials reported that a wildfire near Saumos generated a pyrocumulonimbus storm in July, producing lightning and wind shifts that spread fires across Gironde.
7/28/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
Scientists attribute 2026 wildfires in France and Spain to climate-change-linked wet-to-dry weather whiplash amid record heat, causing evacuations exceeding 300,000 people.
7/27/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
Portugal's planners and communities are linking flood and wildfire prevention in 2026 across central Portugal, where wet winter conditions, blocked roads, and saturated landscapes may compound summer risk.
9/7/2026 • Adaptation & Resilience • General
Italian and Spanish shepherds, researchers, and local officials are promoting seasonal grazing across southern Europe to reduce wildfire fuels and sustain biodiversity amid intensifying drought and heat.
9/21/2026 • Adaptation & Resilience • General
Researchers reported in Scientific Reports that climate change has more than doubled fire-prone summer weather in Southern Europe since 1981, as major wildfires affected France, Spain, Greece, Turkiye, and the United Kingdom.
7/30/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
World Weather Attribution researchers said on Friday that human-caused warming made the wildfire weather affecting France and Spain in 2026 substantially more likely.
7/31/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
The Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research reported Thursday that Europe's annual wildfire area could nearly triple by century's end under high emissions, especially around the Mediterranean and across Western and Central Europe.
8/21/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
Western European authorities evacuated hundreds of thousands of residents as climate-linked heat and drought intensified wildfires across France, Spain, and the United Kingdom this summer.
7/31/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
Wildfires in southwestern France and Spain intensified in the 2020s, forcing mass evacuations as drought, heat, smoke health impacts, and deaths increased.
7/29/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
Météo-France and World Weather Attribution links record heat in Europe to severe wildfires in France and Spain, driving large evacuations during July response efforts.
7/27/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
European communities faced intensifying heat, drought and wildfires during summer 2026 as human-caused warming increased fire-weather risks across Spain, France, the United Kingdom and other countries.
8/15/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
Western Europe wildfires displace tens of thousands in France and Spain in July, as climate scientists attribute worsening fire-weather conditions to climate change.
7/28/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
Thousands were evacuated in southern Europe as climate-driven heat waves preceded wildfires in France, Spain, Portugal, and Greece, increasing health risks and firefighting deployments.
7/7/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
Aemet and French health agencies report thousands of June heat-related excess deaths as upcoming forecasts in Spain and France target temperatures up to 44C.
7/2/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
Researchers reported in new Global Change Biology research that European wildfire area could increase sharply by century’s end despite expanded fire management.
8/20/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
Interesting
Scientists linked record European June heat and wildfire growth to fossil-fuel-driven climate change, while EU funding and firefighting actions responded to France and Spain fire damage.
7/7/2026 • Adaptation & Resilience • General
During summer 2026, wildfires driven by heat and drought burned across Europe, forcing mass evacuations and prompting EU calls for stronger preparedness and environmental management.
8/8/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
Climate change is increasing heat, wildfire, and water risks for pilgrims and tourism communities along Spain's Camino de Santiago during hotter summers.
8/3/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
The European Commission Joint Research Centre projects exceptionally high wildfire danger across western and central Europe from 29 July through 2 August 2026.
7/31/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
Recent wildfires in France, Spain, and eastern Oregon have damaged or threatened dense plantations and forest-carbon projects, intensifying debate over climate adaptation and fire management.
7/30/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
French and Spanish authorities evacuated hundreds of thousands of people during intense wildfires after pyrocumulonimbus clouds formed in Gironde and near Castellon.
7/29/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
France and Spain are evacuating more than 325,000 people in wildfire disasters driven by heat, drought, wind, and lightning in July.
7/27/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
Firefighting authorities across Portugal, Spain, France, and Greece responded to heat-driven wildfires starting Monday, with thousands evacuated and European Union aircraft deployed.
7/6/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
Scientists linked an early-July European heatwave to fossil-fuel-driven climate change, followed by wildfires in Greece, Spain, Portugal, and France with evacuations and high fire-risk levels.
7/5/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
Since the 2022 Vall d’Ebo wildfire in Alicante, residents and Vuelta a España organizers have confronted worsening heat, dryness, and wildfire risks affecting communities and cycling routes.
9/3/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
Wildfires burned record-scale areas and prompted mass evacuations in Spain and France during July 2026, including fires near Avila, Madrid, Bordeaux, and Le Porge.
8/5/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
Wildfires in Greece, France, and Spain killed firefighters and civilians and displaced roughly one-third of a million people across Europe during the 2026 summer fire emergency.
8/2/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
UN Secretary-General António Guterres and ministers from the United Kingdom, France, and Spain linked deadly wildfires in France and Spain to climate change and urged faster action.
7/31/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
European firefighters and EU emergency crews responded to record-severity wildfires across France, Spain, Greece, Italy, and Portugal as heat, dryness, and wind intensified conditions.
7/30/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
French firefighters confronted unprecedented pyrocumulonimbus clouds during record-breaking wildfires across France as extreme heat increased fire spread and atmospheric instability.
7/30/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
Wildfires threatened communities near Madrid and vineyards around Bordeaux in June 2026 as record Western European heat and drought dried vegetation and strained firefighters.
7/29/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
French and Spanish authorities battled wildfires during prolonged heatwaves and drought, evacuating hundreds of thousands of residents across southwestern France and eastern and central Spain.
7/29/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
Fernando Grande-Marlaska and European Commission officials reported large wildfires in France and Spain, displacing about 375,000 people amid heatwaves in early August.
7/27/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
Wildfires across southern Europe and the eastern Mediterranean have caused major deaths, and climate change is expected to increase heat and dryness that intensify burning and elevate mortality risk.
7/10/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
Research discussed by Bob Berwyn links climate warming to expanding European forest disturbances and North American pest-driven tree loss, with projected century-end ecosystem changes.
4/7/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
In 2025, climate scientists found that human-caused warming made severe fire weather twice as likely in France and 20 times likelier in Spain.
8/13/2026 • Policy, Politics & Governance • General
Researchers at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research projected that climate change could sharply increase annual wildfire burning across Europe during 2070-2100.
8/20/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
Yoann Berno highlighted in 2025 how record wildfires in France and Spain are exposing European firefighting and infrastructure adaptation gaps.
8/1/2026 • Adaptation & Resilience • General
European policymakers must combine wildfire adaptation with fossil fuel reductions and net-zero action after increasingly dangerous fires across Europe.
8/5/2026 • Adaptation & Resilience • General
Australia uses pre-season bushfire planning and earlier evacuation guidance as human-driven climate change increases global fire-weather risk, with European services urged to adapt to vegetation fires.
7/17/2026 • Adaptation & Resilience • General
Monica Showalter argues that 2026 wildfires across Spain, Italy, France, and Scotland reflect heat, fuel loads, and human ignition more than climate change.
7/28/2026 • Policy, Politics & Governance • General
Greek firefighters battled wind-driven wildfires near Athens on Sunday as heat and drought fueled destruction, while low Danube levels disrupted electricity generation in Hungary and Serbia.
8/2/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
European authorities confronted widespread wildfires, mass evacuations, and escalating heat-driven risks across Greece, Turkiye, Spain, France, and neighboring countries during a severe summer outbreak.
7/29/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
Spanish firefighters in Ávila and the Madrid region reported unprecedented wildfire conditions as climate-linked drought and heat waves lengthen extreme fire-risk periods, driving evacuation-first tactics and large-scale displacement.
7/28/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
Spain and France issued heatwave warnings as wildfires expanded during July, driven in part by rapid European warming cited by Copernicus.
7/28/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
France ordered additional evacuations near Lacanau in Gironde during a major wildfire, while Spain battled record and ongoing fires amid heat forecasts exceeding 40 C.
7/28/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
France and Spain authorities reported major wildfires during a heatwave period, evacuating over 325,000 people and citing heat and drought conditions as drivers.
7/27/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
France and Spain activated large wildfire evacuations in July as drought and heatwaves intensified by climate change spread blazes near Bordeaux and in Avila.
7/26/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
France and Spain issued large wildfire evacuations after record heatwaves, while EU and national forces deployed aircraft and firefighters as wildfire risks increased.
7/26/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
Spain and France reported very high wildfire danger and heatwave impacts as active blazes burned across multiple regions, with climate change cited as intensifying wildfire risk.
7/23/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
Spanish authorities report a wildfire in Guadalajara province near Madrid has burned 30,000 hectares and displaced 1,200 people during a 2025 heatwave period.
7/21/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
France reported Fontainebleau-area wildfires during a Western Europe heatwave on Monday, burning over 800 hectares and disrupting A6 traffic and train lines.
7/13/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
French and Spanish authorities evacuated roughly 330,000 people in July 2022 as heat and dryness intensified major wildfires across southwestern Europe.
7/28/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
Emmanuel Macron urged firefighters in France's Gironde as a week-old wildfire displaced about 220,000 people ahead of forecast heat-wave conditions, while Spain and Italy faced additional major blazes.
7/27/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
France and Spain mobilized aircraft, firefighters, and mass evacuations during wildfires in Gironde and central Spain after unusually early heatwaves intensified flames.
7/25/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
Spanish authorities warned on Wednesday that eclipse-driven travel could intensify wildfire risks and obstruct emergency access across drought-affected rural areas.
8/10/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
European firefighters and emergency authorities battled climate-intensified wildfires across France, Spain, Greece, and Turkey during a severe summer heatwave.
7/29/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
Firefighters in France and Spain are containing heatwave-driven wildfires this week as evacuations and burned areas reach exceptional levels across southern Europe.
7/29/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
Spain and southwestern France faced severe wildfires during summer, displacing about 330,000 people as extreme heat and fire-generated weather complicated containment.
7/28/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
Emmanuel Macron and Spanish officials coordinated wildfire containment in France and Spain as Aemet forecast another heat wave beginning Wednesday.
7/27/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
Spain and France coordinated wildfire response this week as heatwave forecasts raised temperatures and worsened extreme wildfire and smoke risks.
7/27/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
France and Spain faced major wildfire incidents during European heatwave conditions as evacuations expanded around Bordeaux, Valencia, and Toledo.
7/26/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
In southwestern France and near Madrid, wildfires during a record Western Europe heat period led to evacuations of more than 140,000 people in France and more than 60,000 near Madrid.
7/25/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
France and Spain deployed large-scale wildfire response efforts in 2026 as record heat and drought drove evacuations near Bordeaux and in Spanish regions.
7/25/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
France and Spain coordinated mass evacuations and EU firefighting aircraft support during summer wildfires, citing Copernicus-linked climate change effects on heat and dryness.
7/24/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
In Andalusia, Spain, wildfires beginning last Thursday in Almería killed 13 adults, including seven UK nationals, after electrical-cable ignition spread under heatwave and high-wind conditions.
7/14/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
Heat-wave conditions and wind-driven spread amplified a wildfire in Los Gallardos, Andalusia, with officials reporting at least 12 deaths and more than 1,400 evacuations as of Saturday.
7/11/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
On 3 and 5 July, Portugal and France activated the EU Civil Protection Mechanism to request rescEU wildfire assistance during severe heatwave conditions.
7/6/2026 • Adaptation & Resilience • General
EU Crisis Management Commissioner Hadja Lahbib urged increased wildfire prevention funding and RescEU capacity as France and Spain battled deadly blazes in July 2026.
7/29/2026 • Adaptation & Resilience • General
Additional
Spain's government, opposition parties, and climate scientists clashed in 2026 over wildfire causes and preparedness as fires spread across more than 180,000 hectares.
8/2/2026 • Policy, Politics & Governance • General
European communities faced extreme heat, drought, and wildfires on Friday, with evacuations and injuries reported in Croatia, Germany, England, France, and Greece.
8/14/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General