UN Forecasts Record Heat Over Next Five Years

World Meteorological Organization projections indicate a high likelihood of exceptional global heat between 2026 and 2030, including an 86% chance that at least one year will exceed 2024 as the hottest on record and a 75% chance that the five-year average will surpass 1.

5°C above pre-industrial levels. An expected El Niño could amplify near-term temperatures, while the outlook also points to faster Arctic warming, continued summer sea-ice loss, drier conditions and wildfire risk in the Amazon, and wetter conditions with possible flooding in parts of the Sahel. The projections underscore rising risks to health, ecosystems, food supplies and disaster preparedness, although the 1.5°C threshold is assessed over a longer-term average and is not a single-year cliff edge.