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Last Update: 10/14/2026 at 6:33 AM EST
The 1.5°C Overshoot Pathway
Coverage from The Conversation, Energy and Climate Index, and others
The 1.
5°C overshoot pathway describes a possible period in which global warming exceeds the Paris Agreement’s temperature limit before potentially declining again. UNEP assessments compare current policies and national commitments with the much faster emissions reductions needed to constrain peak warming, while examining risks to health, food and water security, ecosystems, economies, and climate systems. The longer and higher the overshoot, the greater the potential harms and tipping-point risks. Limiting it requires rapid emissions cuts, adaptation to impacts that cannot be avoided, and carbon dioxide removal to help bring temperatures down.
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10/14/2026
UNEP now projects that sustained warming will likely cross 1.5°C within the next several years, making overshoot a near-term prospect rather than a general risk under inadequate plans.
All Articles49 articles
Important
A United Nations climate assessment warns that global warming is approaching and likely exceeding 1.5 C worldwide, increasing risks while leaving deeper warming avoidable through rapid fossil fuel phaseout.
9/7/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
UNEP reported in 2025 that current global policies could drive approximately 2.6°C warming by 2100 worldwide, despite pathways limiting peak warming near 1.8°C.
9/9/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
The United Nations Environment Programme reported in 2024 that governments must reduce emissions rapidly and prepare for warming overshoot through adaptation and carbon dioxide removal.
9/2/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
In September, climate scientist Debra Roberts presented UNEP's overshoot report at the Chinese University of Hong Kong, outlining emissions cuts and adaptation needs as warming approaches 1.5 C.
10/7/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
Climate scientists warn that continued warming could trigger tipping points, including AMOC collapse, with major risks for Europe and other regions this century.
9/24/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
Global climate monitoring agencies and researchers reported in 2026 that rising temperatures, extreme weather, and Himalayan glacier hazards require faster emissions cuts and adaptation worldwide.
9/17/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
The United Nations Environment Programme reported that global warming is likely to exceed 1.5°C within several years, with current policies producing 2.6°C warming by 2100 worldwide.
9/2/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
The United Nations reported in 2026 that global warming will likely exceed 1.5°C around 2030, increasing risks for Pacific islands and other vulnerable regions.
9/2/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
The UN Environment Programme reported globally that warming will likely exceed 1.5C within the next few years, while rapid emissions cuts could limit and eventually reverse some warming.
9/7/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
The United Nations Environment Programme reported Wednesday that global warming will likely exceed 1.5C within several years worldwide, requiring faster emissions cuts and carbon removal to limit overshoot.
9/6/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
The UN report Limiting Overshoot says global warming will likely exceed 1.5°C within years, requiring faster mitigation and adaptation worldwide, including in New Zealand.
9/2/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
The United Nations Environment Programme reported that global temperatures will likely exceed 1.5°C within years, requiring rapid emissions cuts, adaptation, and carbon removal worldwide.
9/2/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
The United Nations Environment Programme reported that fossil fuel emissions will likely push global warming above 1.5 C within years, requiring faster mitigation and adaptation worldwide.
9/2/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
The UN Environment Programme and climate scientists reported that governments must limit warming near 1.8C through rapid mitigation to retain a possible return to 1.5C by 2100.
9/2/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
The United Nations Environment Programme reported that global temperatures will likely exceed 1.5C within several years, requiring faster emissions cuts and carbon removal worldwide.
9/2/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
Laurence Tubiana warned that projected global warming above 1.5C within roughly three years could cause lasting ecological and social damage worldwide.
9/2/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
The United Nations Environment Programme reported that global temperatures will likely exceed 1.5 C within several years, requiring rapid emissions cuts, adaptation, and carbon removal worldwide.
9/2/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
The United Nations Environment Programme says rapid global emissions cuts are needed within the next decade to limit 1.5C overshoot and reduce irreversible climate risks worldwide.
9/2/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
UNEP's Limiting Overshoot report explains that, as global warming approaches 1.5°C, governments worldwide need emissions cuts, adaptation, and sustained finance to manage prolonged climate risks.
9/21/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
The United Nations Environment Programme warned in its 2025 special report that prolonged global warming above 1.5 degrees Celsius could intensify disasters and weaken climate financing worldwide.
9/4/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
UNEP's latest emissions assessment warns that global warming could reach 1.8 C under existing pledges and 2.6 C under current policies by 2100.
9/29/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
The UN Environment Programme warned in the 2020s that current policies could push global warming beyond 1.5°C worldwide within coming years, increasing extreme weather and climate risks.
9/2/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
The United Nations Environment Programme reported last week that continued global emissions growth has made the Paris Agreement's 1.5-degree warming limit increasingly unattainable worldwide.
9/8/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
The United Nations Environment Programme reported that continued fossil fuel use could push global warming above 1.5C this century, increasing risks worldwide despite renewable energy cost declines.
9/8/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
The United Nations Environment Programme and World Meteorological Organization warn in recent reports that global heating will exceed 1.5 degrees, worsening extreme weather in Ireland and worldwide.
9/6/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
UNEP reported after widespread extreme weather that global warming is likely to exceed 1.5C, urging faster emissions cuts, adaptation finance, and carbon removal worldwide.
9/21/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
The United Nations Environment Programme reported globally that warming could exceed 1.5°C within years and requires rapid emissions cuts to limit and reverse the overshoot.
9/16/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
The United Nations Environment Programme said a new report finds global warming may exceed 1.5°C within years unless governments rapidly reduce emissions, expand carbon removal, and strengthen adaptation worldwide.
9/9/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
UN report Limiting Overshoot warns that global warming will likely exceed 1.5°C within years, prompting New Zealand experts to call for faster mitigation and adaptation worldwide.
9/8/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
The UN Environment Programme reports that global warming will likely exceed 1.5C in coming years worldwide, while urging faster fossil-fuel reductions, adaptation, and governed carbon removal.
9/7/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
The United Nations Environment Programme projects near-term 1.5°C warming overshoot worldwide and calls for faster emissions cuts, carbon removal, and adaptation finance.
9/19/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
The United Nations Environment Programme reported in the 2020s that warming could exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius globally, requiring immediate emissions cuts and later net-negative emissions.
9/3/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
The United Nations Environment Programme reported that countries worldwide are nearing a dangerous climate threshold because emissions reductions remain insufficient to meet the Paris Agreement's 1.5-degree goal.
9/2/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
The United Nations Environment Programme reported that global warming will likely exceed 1.5 C within years, requiring emissions cuts, adaptation, and carbon removal worldwide.
9/2/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
The United Nations warned globally that likely 1.5-degree Celsius threshold exceedance will intensify climate impacts while United States companies expand clean-energy projects.
9/7/2026 • Clean Energy & Emissions • General
The United Nations Environment Programme reported in its Limiting Overshoot assessment that global warming could exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius within years before potentially declining later this century.
9/8/2026 • Policy, Politics & Governance • General
The United Nations Environment Programme reported that global warming will likely overshoot 1.5°C within years, requiring governments worldwide to accelerate emissions cuts, carbon removal, and adaptation planning.
9/2/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
Interesting
The UN Secretary-General's Climate Summit will convene governments, development banks, businesses, finance and civil society on 23 September at UN Headquarters in New York to advance emissions cuts, climate finance and resilience.
9/21/2026 • Policy, Politics & Governance • General
The United Nations Environment Programme reported in the 2020s that warming will likely exceed 1.5°C, requiring rapid mitigation, carbon removal and adaptation worldwide.
9/10/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
A United Nations report says in 2026 that global warming will likely exceed 1.5 C around 2030, with Pacific Island communities facing heightened risks.
9/9/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
The United Nations released a global report warning that warming will exceed 1.5°C and urging governments to reduce emissions while assessing carbon removal and solar geoengineering risks.
9/2/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
The United Nations Environment Programme reported that global temperatures will likely exceed 1.5°C within several years, requiring worldwide emissions cuts, adaptation, and carbon removal.
9/2/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
UNEP warns in its climate assessment that existing pledges could allow global warming to reach 1.8°C later this century, increasing risks worldwide.
9/21/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
UNEP published a climate overshoot report on 2 September 2026, while Climate Analytics criticized its limited mitigation analysis and emphasis on transformational adaptation.
9/2/2026 • Policy, Politics & Governance • General
The United Nations Environment Programme warned in a new global report that delayed emissions cuts make 1.5C warming almost unavoidable and increase future adaptation costs.
9/2/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
A United Nations assessment concludes in the 2020s that global warming will exceed 1.5°C within years worldwide, intensifying the need for emissions cuts and adaptation.
9/2/2026 • Adaptation & Resilience • General
A United Nations report warns that global temperatures may exceed 1.5°C within the next few years worldwide, while faster emissions reductions and adaptation could alter long-term outcomes.
9/2/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
The United Nations Environment Programme said in the 2020s that global warming is likely to overshoot 1.5C, despite cheaper renewable energy and stronger climate technologies worldwide.
9/8/2026 • Policy, Politics & Governance • General
The United Nations Environment Programme released an assessment in Paris outlining emissions cuts and carbon removal needed to limit and reverse a likely global 1.5°C overshoot.
9/2/2026 • Policy, Politics & Governance • General