El Niño and ENSOEl Niño and ENSOCoverage from The Climate Brink, The Conversation, and others
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El Niño is the warm phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation, a recurring interaction between tropical Pacific Ocean temperatures and the atmosphere.
Changes in trade winds, ocean heat, jet streams, rainfall, and monsoon circulation can produce contrasting risks—drought in some places and flooding or heavier rain in others—across the Americas, Australia, Asia, Africa, and Pacific islands. Forecast agencies such as NOAA and Copernicus track the pattern using observations, models, and temperature-anomaly datasets. Its consequences extend beyond weather to crop yields, food security, fisheries, hydropower, energy demand, and global temperature records, while researchers assess how long-term warming may influence its effects.
It clearly distinguishes El Niño’s short-term warming effects from human-caused warming and explains what remains uncertain about climate change altering El Niño itself.
It documents a distinct cyclone pattern, contrasting suppressed Atlantic hurricane formation with unusually active eastern Pacific storms.
National Geographic
Key Issues
01
El Niño is exceptionally strong, with rankings depending on the index
Pacific temperatures have reached or approached records, and forecasts point to a very strong event that may persist into 2027. Its historical ranking differs by measurement and baseline, with warming-adjusted measures distinguishing event strength from broader ocean warming.
Drawn from 4 articles
02
El Niño adds heat to an already warm baseline
El Niño transfers ocean heat into the atmosphere while human-caused warming keeps global temperatures elevated, raising the prospect of exceptional warmth into 2027. Evidence that climate change is itself increasing El Niño frequency or intensity remains inconclusive.
Drawn from 5 articles
03
Rainfall risks are pronounced but uneven
El Niño shifts rainfall patterns rather than producing uniform effects: California faces forecasts of unusually wet winter conditions, while drought-related water and energy pressures are concerns elsewhere. Local outcomes and impact severity remain uncertain.
Drawn from 3 articles
04
Cyclone activity contrasts between the Atlantic and Pacific
El Niño-related wind shear and other atmospheric conditions have sharply suppressed Atlantic hurricane activity, while Pacific cyclone activity is elevated. This is a current seasonal contrast, not evidence of a lasting shift.
Drawn from 3 articles
Key Numbers
7% of normal
Atlantic hurricane activity
for that point in the season · Sept. 12
“Overall Atlantic activity, measured by the number, strength and duration of storms, was also at a post-1950 record low, according to Colorado State University hurricane expert Phil Klotzbach. Activity was only 7% of normal for that point in the season.”
KCCI and 1 other article
nearly double normal
eastern Pacific tropical-cyclone activity
“Eastern Pacific activity was nearly double normal, with storms lasting much longer than usual, while central Pacific activity was about 40% above normal.”
KCCI and 1 other article
10°C
localized subsurface temperature anomaly
localized
“The event has been fueled by strong oceanic Kelvin waves, which transported subsurface heat eastward along the equatorial Pacific thermocline. These waves deepened the thermocline and weakened the upwelling of cold water. NOAA reported subsurface temperatures more than 8°C above climatological values at depths of roughly 50–150 meters, with localized anomalies reaching 10°C.”
Tech Times
roughly 1,000 years
length of the reconstructed El Niño record
Galápagos coral records compared with modern observations
“Cole and colleagues reconstructed past El Niño events using coral skeletons from the Galápagos, whose annual growth records past environmental conditions. Comparing roughly 1,000 years of records with modern observations, they found that modern El Niños are significantly stronger than those of the preindustrial era.”
WWNO
10 a year requests per year
Annual fishery disaster assistance requests since 2015
since 2015
“Disaster assistance requests have risen from an average of two a year between 1985 and 2015 to 10 a year since 2015.”
Civil Eats
Looking Back
526 Day Timeline
Articles published over time. Hover any bar for the period and its article count.
Jan 24
Mar 7
Apr 18
Jun 6
Jul 18
Aug 29
Oct 10
The Story So Far
No material change
The new article argues that predictable El Niño hazards can become disasters when preparedness is inadequate, but it adds no specific development that materially changes the Topic’s state.
Previously
El Niño formed in the tropical Pacific in 2026 and strengthened to unusually high sea-surface temperatures. Forecasts generally point to a very strong event peaking in late 2026 and potentially continuing into 2027, but its ranking varies by measurement method. Expected effects differ by region: drought and heat risks rise in some areas while heavy rain and flooding become more likely in others. The event adds natural ocean heat to a climate already warmed by human emissions; the extent to which climate change alters El Niño itself remains uncertain.
History
10/15/2026
The main clarification is that claims of record or near-record Pacific warmth depend on the measurement used, so the event’s historical ranking is not uniform.
10/03/2026
The forecast is now backed by observations of exceptionally warm Pacific conditions, with September readings near or matching reported 2015 daily levels. New estimates quantify potential health impacts, while the link between human-caused warming and El Niño behavior is described as inconclusive.
Climate forecasts indicate that a developing El Nino in the tropical Pacific could raise global average temperatures sharply in 2027, while producing regional patterns unlike persistent greenhouse warming.
Forecasts in 2026 indicate a potentially super El Nino developing across the tropical Pacific, threatening higher global temperatures and drier conditions in northeastern New Zealand.
A strong El Nino is suppressing Atlantic hurricane formation and fueling eastern Pacific storms this season, with no Atlantic hurricane recorded through early October.
NOAA reported in August 2026 that a very strong El Niño had developed across the equatorial Pacific, with peak conditions forecast for November 2026 through January 2027.
Researchers reported on 21 August 2026 that the strongest modern El Nino is developing in the equatorial Pacific amid accelerating human-caused global warming.
Scientists reported that human-caused warming is driving widespread 2026 heat and ocean records worldwide, while a strengthening El Nino could elevate global temperatures further.
Forecasters predicted an 81 percent chance of a very strong El Niño in October to December 2026, driven by ENSO ocean-atmosphere shifts that affect rainfall and drought risk.
Berkeley Earth researchers reported a strengthening El Nino event in the tropical Pacific that NOAA forecasts will persist into April 2027 and increase extreme-weather and temperature risks.
7/23/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
The Washington Post / Ben Noll and John Muyskens81
Copernicus Climate Change Service and ECMWF forecasts in 2026 indicate a record-strong El Niño peaking in December 2026 and affecting global weather through 2027.
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center forecasts El Niño persistence into early spring 2027 and an 81% chance of a very strong event during October to December, with regional impacts and model spread on peak intensity.
NOAA forecasts stronger El Nino this fall and estimates elevated odds of very strong warming in the equatorial Pacific, with increased risks of droughts, floods, and cyclone activity changes across multiple regions.
WMO projections forecast 2026 to 2030 temperatures likely exceeding the Paris 1.5C limit, with faster Arctic warming and increased Amazon drought and wildfire risk through 2030.
Copernicus Climate Change Service, via ECMWF, said April sea-surface temperatures nearly matched 2024 records as developing El Niño raises risk of extreme weather and a possible hottest year in 2027.
WMO and EU Copernicus scientists report record 2025 warmth and hazards across Europe while forecasting a strong El Niño that may elevate temperatures through 2027.
Scientists monitoring the tropical Pacific reported on 19 September 2026 that an intensifying El Niño matched the daily sea-surface temperature record and could surpass it this winter.
Fourteen seasonal forecast models project a potentially record-strength 2026-27 El Niño, with NOAA indices suggesting a 77% chance of surpassing past records.
During the current El Niño in the Pacific, climate scientist Mat Collins says natural ocean variability and human-caused warming together increase the likelihood of extremes across affected regions.
NOAA forecasts an 81% chance that El Nino will become very strong by fall, with likely fall-winter drought, rainfall, and temperature impacts worldwide.
Axel Timmermann and researchers report an 80 percent El Nino development chance by September, with climate change expected to amplify impacts across the Pacific and beyond.
A study using 13 climate models reports that super El Nino-related North American weather impacts weaken and shift eastward once warming exceeds about 2C.
Japanese researchers and U.S. meteorologists say a 2020-2023 triple-dip La Nina and revised NOAA indexing contributed to a global temperature jump beginning in 2023.
In a 2023 study, researchers found extreme El Nino heat and drought increased South American tropical forest mortality and reduced carbon sink behavior across six countries.
NOAA declared a strong El Nino in the tropical Pacific on June 11, 2026, as forecasts pointed to global weather shifts and heightened U.S. regional risks.
By September 12, 2026, Atlantic hurricane activity remained near a post-1950 low because strong El Nino conditions suppressed storm formation across the basin.
The World Meteorological Organization forecast in Geneva that an exceptionally strong El Nino will persist into early 2027, increasing heat, drought, flood, and rainfall risks worldwide.
Planet Classroom Network and VoiceAmerica released a Jong-Seong Kug episode on August 17, 2026, explaining how Pacific warming intensifies ENSO hazards worldwide.
NOAA identified an exceptionally strong El Nino in the Pacific in spring, with August temperatures exceeding 2.6 degrees Celsius above average and potentially affecting global weather and economic losses.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration reported an exceptionally strong El Nino in the Pacific Ocean this spring, with effects likely to include global heat and regional weather disruption.
8/12/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
The Washington Post / Ben Noll and John Muyskens73
Climate forecasters expect the developing El Nino to peak late this year over the central equatorial Pacific, potentially setting an intensity record and shifting weather risks worldwide.
NOAA expects a very strong El Nino and Vermont officials plan around probabilistic seasonal temperature and precipitation forecasts influenced more by North Atlantic and Arctic weather.
NOAA confirmed El Nino development and forecasts a 63% chance of an ultra-strong event impacting global weather and regional disaster risk late fall and early winter.
NOAA forecasts strengthening El Niño to reach historic intensity probabilities in fall and early winter, increasing global drought, flood, heat-wave, and wildfire risks.
Under SSP585, CMIP6 models project ENSO-linked surface temperature anomaly signals to emerge over tropical rainforests and the Sahel transition zone as early as the 2040s.
NOAA released Atlantic and eastern and central Pacific hurricane outlooks, forecasting below-average Atlantic activity and above-average eastern Pacific activity based on developing El Niño conditions.
Nature reports NOAA forecasts a likely El Nino between May and July, with higher chances by December, as tropical Pacific wind dynamics remain the main uncertainty.
NOAA warns of an El Nino watch, raising the likelihood of warmer global temperatures and altered Atlantic and Pacific hurricane seasons, starting in the second half of the year.
University of Tokyo researchers and NOAA link a prolonged La Nina and an updated El Nino index to a 2022 energy imbalance increase, raising global temperatures worldwide in 2022-2025.
Japanese researchers and NOAA scientists report that a prolonged La Nina, followed by an El Nino transition and greenhouse gas forcing, increased Earth's energy imbalance and global temperatures in 2022-2025.
In 2026, researchers led by Xin Wang in China identify two life cycles for Central Pacific El Nino and a two-factor model that predicts persistence months in advance.
NOAA-related seasonal forecast assessments in July 2026 project record-strength 2026-27 El Niño using Niño 3.4 and NOAA relative ONI, with strongest global temperature impacts expected in 2027.
Colorado State University forecast a 2026 Atlantic hurricane season with reduced activity driven by El Nino, while major hurricane landfall probabilities remain elevated for the U.S. and Caribbean.
Yale Climate Connections details in February 2026 how NOAA and climate scientists are using the Relative Oceanic Nino Index to refine El Nino-La Nina monitoring, without addressing heat pump systems.
Scientists reported that a potentially record-strength El Nino is driving heat, drought, crop losses, and water risks across regions including Panama, Ethiopia, Kenya, and India.
Katherine Ricke and coauthors reported modeled marine cloud brightening effects on El Nino using Australian bushfire aerosol analogues, while warning about scientific and political risks.
A modelling study proposes marine cloud brightening over the eastern Pacific to dampen El Niño warming, but results suggest possible earlier and stronger La Niña impacts.
Scripps climate modelers in Science Advances (date unspecified) assessed marine cloud brightening over the Pacific to estimate impacts on super El Nino events.
Scientists project additional global temperature records this year as El Nino strengthens and warm oceans drive higher heat and extreme precipitation risks.
NASA and ESA use Sentinel-6 Michael Freilich sea level data to track Kelvin waves across the Pacific signaling potential El Niño development later in the year.
World Meteorological Organization forecasts high-likelihood El Niño formation before November, with UN officials warning of heat and extreme rain and drought risk.
Copernicus and NOAA forecast El Niño development after near-record April sea-surface temperatures, raising the probability of very strong warming during the Northern Hemisphere winter.
NOAA assessed a 61% chance of El Nino development on April 9, with potential for strong event impacts on monsoons, hurricanes, drought risk, and temperature records.
Hansen, Kharecha, Morgan, and Vest argue that 2026 global heat trends and energy-balance changes reflect human-caused forcing, not El Nino alone, with aerosols a key contributor.
Forecast models in early 2027 predict a potentially record super El Niño alongside record ocean heat and higher risk of heat extremes across the United States.
Hansen, Kharecha, Morgan, and Vest project 2026 as potentially the warmest instrumental year based on higher climate sensitivity, larger aerosol cooling, and a developing strong El Nino.
James Hansen and colleagues forecast 2026 as likely the warmest year on record, based on energy imbalance, forcings, and GISS-based temperature estimates.
Federal forecasters are monitoring a potentially record-strength El Nino in the tropical Pacific that could raise global temperatures and increase flooding and drought risks across the United States.
NOAA announced in June that a potentially record-strength El Nino had developed in the tropical Pacific and could raise global temperatures through 2027.
Scientists report that a record-strength El Nino in the Pacific Ocean is intensifying global heat, rainfall, drought, wildfire, and food-security risks.
Australia's Bureau of Meteorology reported that a strengthening El Nino could reach record intensity in the equatorial Pacific during late spring or summer, increasing drought, heatwave, and wildfire risks across Australia and neighboring regions.
In September 2026, seasonal forecast models projected a record-strength 2026-27 El Niño, with potential rainfall and temperature impacts across regions worldwide.
Super El Nino impacts renewable generation in California, southeastern China, the Pacific Northwest, South America, and southern Africa, risking temporary emissions increases.
The World Food Program warns that a potentially record-strength El Niño could worsen food insecurity across vulnerable regions as the event approaches its forecast December peak.
California Gov. Gavin Newsom declared a statewide emergency Monday to accelerate storm preparations across California as NOAA forecast a high probability of a very strong El Niño.
NOAA scientists and California emergency agencies are preparing for potentially wetter storms, coastal flooding and infrastructure disruption across California during the coming winter.
The WHO, WMO and WFP are urging governments worldwide to prepare for a potentially record-strength El Nino expected to peak between November 2026 and January 2027.
United Nations officials warned Friday that a strengthening El Nino in the equatorial Pacific could produce record intensity and more extreme weather worldwide through 2027.
WMO and NOAA forecast a strengthening El Niño during 2026, with elevated drought, heavy rainfall, and heat-wave risks that require early government and humanitarian preparation.
Indonesia's 2026 fires had emitted 76 million tonnes of carbon by 7 September and could match the 2015 season as El Nino intensifies drought conditions.
Wildfires intensified by strong El Niño conditions threatened Bornean orangutans and long-term research stations in Indonesia’s Gunung Palung national park during the dry season.
Indonesia's peat fires intensified across Kalimantan, Sumatra, and Papua in early September 2026 as El Nino-driven drought dried wetlands and increased pollution, emissions, and smoke exposure.
The Panama Canal Authority will restrict vessel passages beginning September 3 in Panama because El Nino-related drought has reduced reservoir water available for locks, drinking water, and hydropower.
NOAA expects a potentially century-strong El Nino to intensify through winter 2027, increasing precipitation and coastal flooding risks across California, Florida, and other US regions.
NOAA forecasts an 81% chance of very strong El Niño, and ocean advocates and fisheries economists warn that warmer waters could cause major U.S. losses and urge emergency congressional funding.
Australia's Bureau of Meteorology projects a developing El Niño may peak near record-strength Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies, increasing odds of top-20% warm temperatures and low rainfall during August to October.
NOAA and the Japan Meteorological Agency declared El Nino onset as models project a likely transition to strong warming in the central-eastern Pacific for at least six months.
WMO reported hydrological whiplash and record heat in Latin America and the Caribbean, citing drought and extreme rainfall impacts across Mexico, Peru, Ecuador, and Jamaica in 2025.
Federal officials and fishery groups are exploring a subsidized commercial fisheries insurance pilot as a powerful El Niño threatens fisheries along the U.S. Pacific coast, with a $500,000 development appropriation proposed for fiscal 2027.
Forecast centers warn that a developing El Nino this year could raise global temperatures and intensify extreme weather across the United States and adjacent regions.
World Meteorological Organisation reporting says a potential El Nino developing over New Zealand winter could raise global temperatures and reshape regional extremes.
ThinkLandscape's September digest surveyed worldwide climate developments, including intensifying El Nino risks, record ocean heat, disasters, economic disruptions, and uneven policy responses.
Anthony Watts challenged Deutsche Welle's framing of a developing 2026 Super El Nino, arguing that natural variability and regional conditions complicate global climate attribution worldwide.
Climate experts report that Atlantic hurricane activity remains unusually weak in 2026 because El Nino, dry Saharan air, weak African waves, and limited deep-ocean heat suppress storm formation across the Atlantic Basin.
Climate change is intensifying ocean heat and reducing snowpack, while a developing Super El Nino could worsen wildfire conditions across the Pacific Northwest and western North America.
António Guterres urged nations globally to reduce fossil fuel use as the World Meteorological Organization forecast intensifying El Niño conditions through October.
French and Spanish authorities reported large wildfires during El Nino conditions, including mass evacuations in Gironde and fatalities and displacement near Madrid.
During a 350.org briefing, CNRS and Climate Central scientists said attribution of severe heatwaves and droughts should prioritize greenhouse-gas warming over El Nino.
World Meteorological Organization forecasts mid-year El Nino development, warning of higher global temperature and rainfall extremes as Pacific subsurface heat intensifies.
NOAA and forecast models project higher odds of a super El Niño forming later in 2025, with global temperature spikes and regional rainfall shifts expected through winter.
ECMWF forecast data project central equatorial Pacific sea-surface temperatures could reach around 3 C above average late in the year, raising risk of a super El Nino with broad climate impacts.
NOAA reported La Niña ended in 2024-2025 and said El Niño is likely to develop later in 2026, affecting hurricane seasons and winter precipitation planning.
WMO warned in 2025 that record excess heat driven by greenhouse gases is rapidly warming oceans and intensifying extreme events, with El Niño expected to increase temperatures into 2026 and 2027.
NOAA issues El Nino Watch with 62 percent odds of formation June through August, signaling potential global temperature rise and shifts in hurricane season.
The World Meteorological Organization says an exceptionally strong El Niño may continue through February 2027, threatening agriculture with drought and floods in Sri Lanka, Indonesia, Peru and Central America.
Los Angeles County crews are removing sediment from reservoirs and debris basins during the dry season to prepare Southern California for possible El Nino storms and debris flows.
James Hansen and coauthors say El Nino forecasts for 2026-27 can improve climate dynamics understanding using upper-300-meter ocean heat content metrics.
Forecasts project a possible El Nino in 2026-2027 while ocean heat acceleration and higher climate sensitivity are linked to faster sea-surface warming.
The World Meteorological Organization forecast a strong El Niño for August through October 2026 as record heat affected South Korea, Europe, and the United States.
Berkeley Earth forecasts an exceptionally strong El Niño peaking near 3.6 C above average, with tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures and South Asia rainfall risks elevated.
US Climate Prediction Center forecasts increased El Niño formation risk by late July, with potential strong-to-very-strong conditions affecting drought, flooding, energy, and food systems across multiple regions.
Forecast models estimate a 62% chance El Nino develops this summer and persists through year end, increasing drought and heat risks and rainfall anomalies across multiple regions.
Scientists and international agencies are preparing for a potentially record-strength 2026-27 El Niño that could intensify heat, drought, flooding and food insecurity across the Pacific region and worldwide.
NOAA meteorologists forecast an exceptionally strong 2026-27 El Nino in the tropical Pacific, potentially making 2027 the warmest year globally and worsening extreme weather.
Climate scientists are tracking an exceptionally strong El Niño in the tropical Pacific this year, with record Niño 3.4 warming and potential worldwide weather impacts.
Forecasters expect a strong El Niño later in 2026, with rainfall and irrigation disruptions raising rice yield and price risks in major producing regions.
Climate and agriculture experts warn that super El Nino and human-induced warming will increase extreme heat and drought risks, damaging harvests and worsening food insecurity.
On July 31, 2026, António Guterres warned at the United Nations that intensifying El Niño and weak Indian monsoon conditions could worsen global heat and food risks.
The World Meteorological Organization warned during its latest update that an intensifying El Nino could worsen heatwaves, drought, flooding and wildfires worldwide in coming months.
Climate scientists assess El Niño and warming ocean conditions as drivers of higher rare tropical cyclone rainfall and landslide risk for southern California during 2026.
WMO forecast a moderate to strong El Nino through November starting June, signaling higher drought, heavy rainfall, and heatwave risks across multiple regions.
NOAA issued a lower-than-average Atlantic hurricane forecast for this year and added street-level flood mapping, an Urban Rain Rate Dashboard, and uncrewed-aircraft data to intensity models.
NOAA officials and forecasters report a potentially historic El Niño forming in the Pacific, with South Florida hurricane and coastal flooding risks shaped by wind shear and sea-level rise.
NOAA and meteorologists project an El Niño to develop by June, bringing wetter winter conditions in South Carolina and potentially limiting Atlantic hurricanes through stronger wind shear.
India Meteorological Department forecast June to September southwest monsoon rainfall, assigning higher odds of below-normal rains during August-September amid potential El Nino conditions.
Researchers report Africa faced record sea level surges during the 2023-2024 El Nino, driven by ocean warming, affecting coastal communities and infrastructure.
A Pacific Kelvin wave is expected to raise California coastal water levels by up to a foot for months as El Niño strengthens this winter, increasing storm-surge and flooding risks.
In 2025, University of California, Santa Barbara researchers found that simulated marine cloud brightening over the Pacific could weaken ENSO and reduce rainfall across the region.
The UK Met Office forecast a potentially record-strength Pacific El Nino, bringing heightened global temperature and regional drought risks while worsening water scarcity across England and Wales.
A strong El Nino and ongoing warming are expected to reduce rice yields in major producing regions worldwide, including the United States, India, Indonesia, and parts of Africa.
The World Meteorological Organization forecast stronger El Niño conditions from August through October, threatening India’s monsoon and increasing heat, drought, flood, and wildfire risks worldwide.
Peruvian officials and international researchers describe El Niño-induced ocean changes that strain anchovy stocks while boosting some warm-water fisheries as consumers face price fluctuations.
NOAA announced a very strong El Nino has begun and expects drought and heavy rainfall risks that could disrupt agriculture and food security as global warming raises extreme-weather intensity.
NOAA announced El Nino arrival and a 63 percent chance of a very strong event during November-January, with major drought and flood risks for multiple regions.
Forecast super El Nino conditions into 2027 are assessed to increase food, flooding, wildfire, energy, and conflict risks, disproportionately affecting poorer populations.
The National Weather Service forecasts below-average hurricane activity for the season starting today, citing an expected El Niño while warning major hurricanes can still develop.
National Weather Service forecasts a below-normal hurricane season starting June 1, attributing outlooks to expected El Nino while warning of potential rapid intensification and landfall risk.
World Weather Attribution researchers warn that warming and an anticipated strong El Nino may intensify drought-driven wildfire risk across Africa and Asia in 2026.
Fredi Otto and other researchers warn that a developing El Nino could amplify extreme heat, droughts, floods, and wildfire risk this year under a human-warmed baseline.
Sylvia Dee and coauthors report in PNAS that El Niño and Indian Ocean Dipole extremes increase violent conflict risk, especially in drought-prone Central America and southern Africa.
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences research links El Niño-driven drought threshold conditions to higher armed conflict risk across vulnerable regions from 1950-2023.
Forecast centers project a strong El Nino may develop later in the year, potentially reaching super-event thresholds and increasing global drought and flood risks.
Super El Niño risk is discussed as increasing chances of reduced wind, solar, and hydropower output, tightening grid reliability planning needs in multiple regions.
During El Niño and major storm events, reduced solar, wind, and hydropower output increases grid reliance on dispatchable fossil generation and planning needs for reserve capacity.
During the 2026 El Niño season, California officials declared a state of emergency and directed agencies to prepare communities and infrastructure for flood, landslide, and coastal risks.
Climate researchers project 451,000 additional heat deaths from the current super El Niño worldwide between June 2026 and February 2027, with tropical countries among the hardest hit.
The University of Chicago's Climate Impact Lab projected that El Niño-driven heat could cause 240,000 additional deaths worldwide from September through February.
University of Chicago Climate Impact Lab scientists projected that a super El Niño could contribute to more than 451,000 additional heat deaths worldwide over six months.
Scientists in June 2026 forecast a super El Nino developing, with region-specific drought and flood risks across Africa affecting food and health systems.
7/5/2026 • Adaptation & Resilience • General
Phys.org / Tafadzwanashe Mabhaudhi and Mendy Ndlovu61
Climate scientists forecast a super El Nino developing in 2026, raising drought and flooding risks for Southern, East and Central, and West Africa, with major food and health impacts.
Pacific Islands Forum activates an emergency response mechanism in response to an Iran-linked fuel shock while forecasts warn of very strong El Nino risk across 2026-early 2027.
Sam Liccardo and Pacifica officials seek reinstated FEMA and NOAA climate resilience funding after El Nino-driven wave impacts forced closure of the Pacifica Municipal Pier.
WMO and international monitoring centers report El Nino returning in 2026 worldwide, with potential global temperature rise and rainfall pattern shifts.
WMO reports El Nino returns in 2026, with global temperature implications and regional flood risks across Peru, Ecuador, and adjacent South American regions.
WMO warns greenhouse-gas-driven energy imbalance is causing record warmth and ocean heat uptake, with probable El Niño conditions expected in late 2026.
Meteorologists warn of a potential super El Nino, forecast to emerge in coming months, affecting weather across the United States, Canada, and the Pacific Rim.
NOAA forecasts El Nino development with 62 percent odds for June through August, potentially influencing global temperatures and the Atlantic and Pacific hurricane seasons.
NOAA announced Pacific El Nino onset with a 63% chance of sea surface temperatures exceeding 2.0 C, while Israel and the United States opposed a UN climate obligations resolution.
NOAA forecasts potential El Nino strengthening this fall, citing elevated tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures and expected North American weather shifts.
Scientists said this week that a developing El Nino could intensify global heatwaves, droughts, and floods during the year as long-term warming increases damage.
NOAA forecast updates and Columbia University assessments in the equatorial Pacific indicate rising odds of El Niño development between June and January.
Months before the expected November-December peak, the World Meteorological Organization warned that a severe El Nino could worsen drought, hunger, water shortages and disease outbreaks in Southern Africa.
Climate scientists tracking the El Niño that began in June report a 3.07°C Niño 3.4 anomaly and forecast further strengthening through winter in the central Pacific.
Ecuadorian scientists warned that a projected strong El Nino could threaten Galapagos wildlife and endemic plants this season across Ecuador's Galapagos Islands.
Cal State Fullerton researchers are examining uncertain El Niño effects and California risks from floods, landslides, wildfires, atmospheric rivers, and coastal hazards.
Governments in Sri Lanka, Indonesia, and Peru are expanding emergency measures in 2023 as a strengthening El Nino raises drought, wildfire, and disaster risks.
On 31 July 2026, UN Secretary-General António Guterres warned from a press conference that strengthening El Nino conditions could intensify deadly heat and rainfall disruption worldwide.
The World Meteorological Organization forecast on Tuesday that intensifying El Nino will worsen heat and rainfall extremes worldwide through November, prompting UN officials to urge preparedness.
ICAR-CMFRI warned on 10 July that El Niño-driven marine heatwaves in India’s northern Indian Ocean could reduce oil sardine availability by April or May 2027.
NOAA reported the start of El Niño and a high likelihood of very strong conditions, warning of regional drought and heavy rainfall impacts on agriculture and food security.
Australia's Bureau of Meteorology warned a strong El Niño is developing in the tropical Pacific, with impacts on rainfall, heat, and food security through late 2026.
NOAA confirmed El Niño onset with a 63% likelihood of historic intensity by late fall or early winter, raising regional extreme-weather risks worldwide.
World Meteorological Organization announced El Niño onset in late May, forecasting Super El Niño conditions and warning of global heat and extreme-weather impacts.
NOAA and WMO forecast that a rapidly strengthening Pacific El Nino will affect temperatures and rainfall across the United States and worldwide during autumn and winter 2026.
During the current El Nino season, Humboldt penguin researchers in Peru are documenting widespread nest abandonment and expected mortality as warming waters reduce food availability.
NOAA forecasts that a potentially century-strong El Nino will intensify across the equatorial Pacific during fall and winter, affecting United States precipitation and coastal flooding through early spring 2027.
Odisha farmers delayed or risked paddy planting in June 2024 as weak monsoon conditions and strengthening El Nino threatened water supplies, crops, and rural incomes.
NOAA says El Nino has officially begun and could be very strong this season, increasing drought and heavy rainfall risks for agricultural production and food security across multiple regions.
NOAA officials reported an El Nino event formation over the Pacific, with a 63% chance of a record-large event and expected impacts on severe storms, heat, and drought.
The United Nations and the World Meteorological Organization warn that likely El Nino development before September and November could intensify Asian heat, drought, flooding, and public health risks.
Asia is facing forecast Super El Nino conditions that could intensify drought, heat, hydropower shortfalls, grid demand spikes, and related health risks this summer.
The World Meteorological Organization said in 2026 that a powerful El Niño in the Pacific Ocean could intensify global heat, extreme weather, and food insecurity through 2027.
Weather agencies, health authorities and governments are preparing for a strengthening El Niño forecast to affect regions worldwide from June 2026 through February 2027.
Governments worldwide face forecast El Nino extremes over the coming year, as worsening drought in Indonesia and gaps in food reserves, aid and infrastructure increase risks.
Shaun Martin at WWF urges climate adaptation planning in the United States as a 2026 El Nino forecast from the World Meteorological Organization could drive floods, droughts, and extreme heat.
On September 22, 2026, EESI reported from the United States that California Governor Gavin Newsom declared an emergency ahead of forecast El Nino-related flooding and other hazards.
The Panama Canal Authority will restrict vessel traffic in Panama from September as El Nino-driven drought threatens water levels, shipping capacity, and nearby drinking-water supplies.
Rice University researchers discuss how strengthening El Nino later in the year could affect coastal storms, extreme rainfall, and flooding risk in regions including Houston.
Australia's Bureau of Meteorology forecast a strong El Nino in the tropical Pacific for late 2026, with excessive Americas rainfall and drought risk in Asia.
Northern Chile experienced extensive snow, heavy rain, mudflows, and flash flooding during unusual August 2026 storms linked to El Nino and altered atmospheric circulation.
Forecasters expect a potentially record-strength El Nino over the Pacific Ocean through 2027, increasing drought, flooding and heat risks across several regions.
Lucy Biggers disclosed prior climate-reporting self-censorship in 2026, while meteorologists attributed the quiet North Atlantic hurricane season to El Nino.
9/18/2026 • Policy, Politics & Governance • General
Lucy Biggers said climate reporters may underreport favorable developments as the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season remained unusually quiet because El Nino hindered hurricane formation.
9/18/2026 • Policy, Politics & Governance • General
Roemer of Best Weather Inc. links El Nino and climate-driven heat to higher wet-bulb health risk and weather uncertainty for corn, soy, and coffee markets.
7/6/2026 • Economy, Business & Innovation • General