European Heatwave Attribution

A new city-level analysis shifts the story beyond the June heatwave, estimating that climate change contributed to 32,619 of 50,391 summer heat deaths across 854 European cities. This adds a much broader, modeled measure of the region’s heat-health burden, distinct from the previously reported peak-week excess deaths.

EuroMOMO’s report adds a Europe-wide measure of excess mortality during the heatwave’s peak week, distinct from earlier estimates of deaths attributable to human-caused warming. A persistent blocking high-pressure pattern is also identified as a contributing factor.

The story now quantifies human-caused warming’s health toll, with an analysis attributing about 1,140 deaths in England and Wales to additional heat. It also extends beyond heat to drought risk and the contribution of recent emissions.

A severe early-summer heatwave across western and central Europe prompted attribution studies examining the role of human-caused climate change. World Weather Attribution researchers found that comparable June heat would have been substantially cooler and far less likely in earlier climate conditions, with unusually hot nights and humidity adding to heat stress. The findings highlight health and preparedness risks across a region where access to cooling is uneven.