Australia’s Warm Winter and the Climate Drivers Behind It

The Bureau of Meteorology declared El Niño active in June 2026 as Pacific warming and weaker trade winds began shifting moisture away from Australia.

The event is contributing to an unusually warm start to winter, increased prospects for prolonged late-winter and spring dryness, and a weak alpine snow season, particularly in southeastern Australia. Climate change is raising the baseline temperature and may amplify the consequences, but the severity of drought, heatwaves, bushfires, and next summer’s conditions will also depend on the Indian Ocean Dipole, Southern Annular Mode, and other weather patterns.