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Last Update: 10/26/2026 at 11:33 PM EST
Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation
Coverage from The Conversation, ScienceAlert, and others
The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, or AMOC, is a large-scale ocean system that carries warm water northward, where cooling and sinking help drive a return flow through the Atlantic.
Research examines whether ocean warming and freshwater from Greenland’s melting ice are weakening this circulation and increasing the risk of a tipping point or eventual shutdown. Observations, climate models, and statistical warning indicators inform estimates of that risk, though the timing and magnitude remain uncertain. A major weakening could affect European temperatures, rainfall belts, regional sea levels, carbon exchange, and climate patterns across the Arctic, Atlantic, and Southern Ocean.
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All Articles42 articles
Important
Researchers used Nova Scotia seabed sediments to reconstruct Younger Dryas ocean changes and found Gulf Stream-driven warming consistent with AMOC weakening mechanisms.
6/11/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
Researchers led by Christo Buizert reported in Nature Geoscience that Pleistocene AMOC changes regulated planetary heat storage through North Atlantic convection, with implications for future weakening.
9/12/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
British Antarctic Survey researchers and ocean monitoring efforts assess AMOC weakening risk using Greenland fjord drone measurements and OSNAP/RAPID circulation monitoring.
7/6/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
Scientists report that a persistent cold North Atlantic anomaly near Iceland and Greenland may signal AMOC weakening and contribute to longer European heat waves.
6/26/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
Nature-published research projects Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation weakening up to 50% by 2100, potentially shifting storms, rainfall, and coastal risk.
4/22/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
Stefan Rahmstorf and Tim Lenton describe rising AMOC tipping-point risk for climate under warming, with the UK lacking explicit adaptation plans while Iceland treats AMOC as national security.
3/4/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
Scientists report human-driven weakening of AMOC in the North Atlantic, using RAPID, OSNAP, and SAMBA observations, with uncertain timing of any major transition.
4/24/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
Climate researchers, including Christo Buizert, describe evidence of past abrupt AMOC-related shifts and uncertain projected weakening this century in the North Atlantic.
9/23/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
An international research team reported in 2026 that late Pliocene AMOC strengthened despite near cessation of Agulhas Leakage near South Africa around 3.4 million years ago.
8/6/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
Nature Communications published a University of California, Riverside study projecting AMOC slowing to intensify California atmospheric rivers and reduce Greenland snowfall under high emissions.
7/28/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
Scientists use Argo floats and paleoclimate evidence to study AMOC weakening risks, including potential abrupt regional weather impacts across the North Atlantic and UK.
7/14/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
Stefan Rahmstorf-led findings connect North Atlantic cooling since 1900 to ocean heat transport and possible AMOC weakening with future European climate risks.
7/7/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
Tim Lenton and researchers model Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation collapse risk, projecting at least a 10 percent chance affecting northern Europe.
7/7/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
Researchers using 21 climate simulations estimate a 10 to 23 percent chance that AMOC collapse in the North Atlantic may already be committed, depending on emissions timing and Greenland ice melt.
7/6/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
Researchers running 21 AMOC simulations estimate 10 to 23 percent risk of already committed Atlantic overturning collapse, depending on emissions timing and Greenland melt.
7/6/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
Researchers analyzing North Atlantic heat fluxes since 1870 report Greenland-adjacent cooling, suggesting possible AMOC instability and downstream rainfall and storm impacts.
6/22/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
European and US agencies face proposed funding cuts to AMOC monitoring, despite projected weakening that could affect European weather and sea-level rise.
6/14/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
Eight climate models project stronger mid-century AMOC weakening when Europe and North America cut aerosol emissions without concurrent decarbonisation.
5/15/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
Researchers warn AMOC weakening could approach tipping risk, with uncertain timing and potential climate impacts for Europe, Africa, Asia, and the Southern Ocean.
5/7/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
Scientists warn the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation could be nearing collapse, potentially driving abrupt cooling, storms, and faster sea-level rise in coming years.
4/23/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
Researchers estimate AMOC could weaken 43% to 59% by 2100, using bias-corrected Atlantic observations, while scientists stress major uncertainty in tipping-point risk.
4/21/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
Science Advances research led by Valentin Portmann estimates AMOC could slow 42% to 58% by 2100, approaching collapse risk linked to Arctic warming.
4/15/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
Climate modelers project AMOC shutdown could release up to 640 billion tonnes of CO2 near Antarctica and likely become irreversible at current CO2 levels.
4/13/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
Using RAPID-MOCHA moorings, researchers in the western Atlantic report AMOC weakening by about 10 percent between 2004 and 2023.
4/8/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
Researchers reported in Science Advances on April 29 that volcanic eruptions likely disrupted AMOC during the Younger Dryas, showing high ocean-circulation sensitivity to disturbances.
4/30/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
Idaho State University researchers report that North Atlantic circulation disruption near Greenland cooled Alaska mainly in winter about 13,000 years ago, based on lake sediments and Greenland ice cores.
4/1/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
Researchers in a recent study model meltwater impacts on AMOC stability in the Atlantic under high emissions.
3/15/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
Researchers warn AMOC slowdown may trigger tipping points this century; Africa becomes key observation region for monitoring.
2/9/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
Chuncheng Guo and colleagues found in a climate-model simulation that the AMOC could strengthen within decades after global cooling, though the scenario requires enormous carbon removal worldwide.
10/14/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
A Nature Geoscience modeling study led by Christo Buizert at Oregon State University found that weakening Atlantic circulation could cool northern Europe while increasing global warming.
8/18/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
Stefan Rahmstorf and colleagues report long-term cooling southeast of Greenland consistent with AMOC weakening using observation-based climate reanalyses.
6/4/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
Researchers proposed a Bering Strait dam in Science Advances to stabilize AMOC by reducing Pacific freshwater inflow, while the UK Met Office cautioned against geoengineering risks.
5/24/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
Jelle Soons and Henk Dijkstra presented Bering Strait dam simulations at the European Geosciences Union meeting in Vienna on 5 May, finding potential AMOC strengthening under early construction.
5/9/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
Researchers using extended IPCC model runs report the AMOC tipping point may be reached within decades, increasing shutdown risk for the North Atlantic and Europe.
8/28/2025 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
Utrecht University researchers reported in Nature Climate Change that rapid warming could cause Atlantic circulation collapse near 2°C, affecting Europe and other regions.
8/20/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
Researchers at Utrecht University reported on Aug. 13 in Utrecht, Netherlands, that rapid warming could collapse the AMOC near 2 C in simulations.
8/20/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
Utrecht University researchers reported on August 13 that rapid global warming could collapse the AMOC near 2 C in climate-model experiments.
8/18/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
Researchers studying an Atlantic cold anomaly south of Greenland and Iceland link cooling to weaker AMOC heat export over recent decades.
6/16/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
A climate model projects gradual AMOC slowdown from Greenland meltwater, with potential reversal if global warming is halted in the North Atlantic.
7/2/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
Andrew Watson and Phil Williamson dispute AMOC collapse claims in responses, citing projections for higher odds of 50 percent weakening by late-century under continued fossil-fuel emissions.
4/27/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
Interesting
Scientists project AMOC slowdown by 2100, warning of regional climate impacts while political climate responses are described as misaligned with risk scale.
4/17/2026 • Policy, Politics & Governance • General
Recent studies link weakening AMOC to potential colder northern European winters, monsoon shifts, and U.S. east-coast sea-level rise.
6/17/2026 • Policy, Politics & Governance • General