2026 Global Heat Record Forecasts

Climate researchers are projecting exceptionally high global temperatures in 2026, with James Hansen and colleagues arguing that the year could surpass 2024 as the warmest in the instrumental record.

Zeke Hausfather’s multi-dataset forecast also assigns a substantial chance of a new record, but gives the highest probability to a second-place ranking because temperature datasets set different 2024 benchmarks. The forecasts rely heavily on expectations for a strong El Niño, while a broader disagreement remains over climate sensitivity, declining aerosol cooling, and whether recent warming represents a significant acceleration.