Maine Senate Race: Jackson vs. CollinsMaine Senate Race: Jackson vs. CollinsCoverage from Trending Politics, Idaho Public Press, and others
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The 2026 Maine Senate race centers on Democrat Troy Jackson’s challenge to Republican incumbent Susan Collins.
CNN/SSRS polling reported Jackson at 48% and Collins at 45% among likely voters, a difference within the poll’s margin of error. Voters’ economic concerns—including cost of living and tariffs—are important campaign issues, alongside views of national political leadership and the Dobbs ruling. Poll findings also highlight differences in candidate recognition and whether voters are motivated by support for a candidate or opposition to an opponent.
Its recent Fox poll adds a tie result, voter views of household finances, and subgroup findings on independents.
Yahoo News / Sam Stevenson
Key Issues
01
A statistically unresolved polling contest
Recent polls range from narrow Jackson leads to a tie, with the latest Fox survey finding 49% for each candidate. Results remain within polling margins of error and do not establish a dependable advantage for either candidate.
Stable
Drawn from 4 articles
02
Affordability remains a salient voter concern
Affordability and household costs remain prominent in the polling evidence: affordability led overall in AARP polling, while a recent Fox poll found many voters felt their families were worse off than two years earlier. The available findings establish this as a major backdrop, not a clear candidate advantage.
Stable
Drawn from 3 articles
03
Age divides create opposing candidate strengths
Polling shows Jackson stronger among younger voters and Collins stronger among older voters, including older swing voters. The age split makes turnout composition consequential; one survey also found lower reported voting motivation among younger respondents.
Stable
Drawn from 3 articles
04
Independent and crossover voters remain hard to read
Polls disagree on whether independents favor Collins, Jackson, or neither. Some surveys show Collins with an advantage or crossover support, while others find a tie or Jackson lead, leaving these voters consequential but uncertain.
Stable
Drawn from 4 articles
Key Numbers
619 likely voters
poll sample size
Sept. 15-22
“U.S. Sen. Susan Collins led Democrat Troy Jackson in a New York Times/Siena/Portland Press Herald poll released Thursday, her strongest showing in a major public survey of the November race.
The five-term Republican leads 49% to 46% among 619 likely voters surveyed Sept. 15-22. The margin of error is 4.9 percentage points.”
Bangor Daily News and 5 other articles
45% percent
likely voters supporting Susan Collins
Maine · August 31 through September 6, 2026
“In Maine, 48% of likely voters back Jackson and 45% support Collins. The result is within the survey's margin of sampling error.”
CNN and 5 other articles
619 voters
Maine voters surveyed
Sept. 15-22
“Among 619 Maine voters surveyed Sept. 15-22, 49% said they were likely to vote for Collins and 46% for Jackson. The result is Jackson’s weakest in a public poll since he entered the race in July. A separate UMass Lowell/YouGov poll, published Sept. 24 and conducted Aug. 28-Sept. 14, showed Jackson leading by five points.”
The Sacramento Bee and 3 other articles
46% percent
likely voters supporting Troy Jackson
New York Times/Siena/Portland Press Herald poll · Sept. 15-22
“U.S. Sen. Susan Collins led Democrat Troy Jackson in a New York Times/Siena/Portland Press Herald poll released Thursday, her strongest showing in a major public survey of the November race.
The five-term Republican leads 49% to 46% among 619 likely voters surveyed Sept. 15-22. The margin of error is 4.9 percentage points.”
Bangor Daily News and 3 other articles
46%
support for Troy Jackson
likely Maine voters · Sept. 15 to 22
“In the second installment of The New York Times/Portland Press Herald/Siena poll, conducted Sept. 15 to 22 among 619 likely Maine voters, Collins led Democratic challenger and former Maine Senate President Troy Jackson 49% to 46%. With a 4.8% margin of error, the race was close with six weeks remaining.”
Lewiston Sun Journal and 2 other articles
Contested Issue
1 open dispute
Which candidate do Maine Senate polls indicate is leading?
Polls have produced narrow leads for both Jackson and Collins: several surveys reported Jackson ahead, while the September New York Times/Siena survey reported Collins ahead. The leads were generally close to or within the surveys’ margins of error, so these differing snapshots do not establish a durable advantage.
Polls favoring Jackson
4 articles · across 4 publications
These surveys reported Jackson ahead of Collins, usually by a narrow margin.
Polls favoring Collins
5 articles · across 5 publications
The September New York Times/Siena survey reported Collins narrowly ahead of Jackson, with the lead within the survey’s margin of error.
Looking Back
396 Day Timeline
Articles published over time. Hover any bar for the period and its article count.
Sep '25
Dec '25
Jan '26
Apr '26
Jun '26
Aug '26
Oct '26
The Story So Far
No material change
New coverage reiterates a tied, competitive race and adds polling detail on voter groups and economic sentiment, but does not materially change the picture since the prior state.
Previously
Maine's 2026 Senate contest between incumbent Susan Collins and Democrat Troy Jackson remains closely fought in recent polling. Jackson leads in several surveys, but other polls show a Collins lead or a tie, with differences generally within the surveys' margins of error. Affordability and fuel prices recur as voter concerns, while age and independent-voter splits offer contrasting signs for the candidates.
History
10/27/2026
Newer polling reinforces that neither candidate has a clear lead. Some surveys also distinguish their perceived strengths: Collins on federal funding and bipartisanship, Jackson on several policy issues.
10/25/2026
The coverage adds a sharper policy and political contrast: Collins touts seafood and tariff-related relief, which Jackson disputes, while voters’ views of Collins’s Trump ties and Jackson’s ideology enter the race’s framing.
Suffolk University found Troy Jackson leading Susan Collins 49% to 47% among likely Maine voters in an October poll, with the result within the margin of error.
The Washington Post-Schar School poll found Troy Jackson leading Susan Collins among likely voters in Maine in a survey conducted September 30 to October 5.
A New York Times/Siena poll conducted September 15–22 in Maine found Sen. Susan Collins leading Democratic nominee Troy Jackson 49% to 46% among likely voters.
In September 2026, University of New Hampshire polling showed Susan Collins narrowing her deficit among women in Maine, while Troy Jackson maintained a small lead.
An AARP-commissioned poll conducted Sept. 20-22 found Troy Jackson leading Susan Collins 50 percent to 47 percent among likely Maine voters, with Collins ahead among voters 50 and older.
Democrat Troy Jackson led Republican Senator Susan Collins in recent Maine polls and prediction markets as of August 6, making the 2026 Senate contest a national toss-up.
Troy Jackson leads Susan Collins in a UNH States of Opinion poll released Tuesday as Democratic primary voters back Jackson after Graham Platner withdrew.
A Fox News survey conducted August 6 to 10 found Troy Jackson narrowly leading Susan Collins among Maine voters as immigration concerns intensified after a Biddeford shooting.
Troy Jackson led Susan Collins in three polls conducted in July and August 2026 as Maine's two-candidate Senate contest emerged as a Democratic target.
On July 21, a University of New Hampshire Survey Center poll found Troy Jackson 49% and Susan Collins 46% among likely Maine voters for a November Senate matchup.
University of New Hampshire polling conducted July 15-20 shows Troy Jackson slightly ahead of Susan Collins in a hypothetical Maine Senate matchup and leading Democrats in primary testing.
Fox News found Troy Jackson leading Susan Collins 48 percent to 46 percent from August 6-10 among Maine voters, with the result within the margin of error.
The Washington Post-Schar School poll found Troy Jackson leading Susan Collins 50% to 46% among likely Maine voters, based on interviews conducted Sept. 30-Oct. 5.
The Washington Post and George Washington University Schar School found Democrat Troy Jackson leading Republican Susan Collins 50%-46% in a Maine Senate poll conducted September 30-October 5.
The Washington Post and George Washington University's Schar School released a poll Friday showing Troy Jackson leading Susan Collins 50% to 46% in Maine after fieldwork from Sept. 30 to Oct. 5.
A New York Times-Siena College poll conducted September 15-22 found Susan Collins leading Troy Jackson 49% to 46% among likely Maine voters ahead of the November 3, 2026, election.
Less than a month before Maine's 2026 U.S. Senate election, former President Barack Obama endorsed Democrat Troy Jackson as polls showed a close contest with Susan Collins.
Fox News found Susan Collins and Troy Jackson tied among likely voters in Maine in a poll conducted October 16-20, less than two weeks before Election Day.
Suffolk University found Democratic challenger Troy Jackson leading Republican Sen. Susan Collins 49%-47% among likely voters in Maine in an Oct. 8-11, 2026, poll.
The New York Times and Siena University found Susan Collins leading Troy Jackson 49%-46% in a September 15-22, 2025 poll of Maine voters released September 24.
Three polling organizations released conflicting results Thursday in the Maine 2026 U.S. Senate race, showing Democrat Troy Jackson and Republican Susan Collins in a close contest.
Beacon Research and Shaw & Company Research found Susan Collins and Troy Jackson tied among likely voters in Maine in a poll conducted October 16-20, 2026.
Suffolk University found Troy Jackson leading Susan Collins 49% to 47% in a poll of likely Maine voters conducted October 8–11, ahead of their October 15 debate.
Fox News found Democratic nominee Troy Jackson leading Republican Senator Susan Collins 48% to 46% in Maine on August 6-10, intensifying competition before the November 3 election.
Troy Jackson led Susan Collins in three recent Maine polls and received favorable August 6 prediction-market odds after becoming the Democratic nominee in July.
In an October poll of likely voters in Maine, Fox News found Republican Senator Susan Collins and Democratic challenger Troy Jackson tied at 49 percent as the 2026 Senate contest approached its closing weeks.
Hart Research found Troy Jackson leading Susan Collins 49% to 45% among 802 likely Maine voters surveyed for Senate Majority PAC from July 27 through August 1.
AARP found Democrat Troy Jackson leading Sen. Susan Collins 50% to 47% among likely Maine voters surveyed September 20-22, while Collins led older swing voters.
From Sept. 20-22, Fabrizio Ward and Impact Research surveyed likely voters in Maine for AARP, finding Jackson narrowly ahead overall and Collins favored among voters age 50 and older.
A New York Times, Portland Press Herald and Siena poll conducted September 15–22 found Susan Collins leading Troy Jackson 49% to 46% in Maine's 2026 Senate race.
A New York Times, Portland Press Herald, and Siena poll conducted September 15 to 22 found Susan Collins leading Troy Jackson 49% to 46% among likely Maine voters.
On Thursday, University of New Hampshire and UMass Lowell-YouGov polls showed Troy Jackson leading Susan Collins in Maine's 2026 U.S. Senate race, while a Times poll showed Collins ahead.
The New York Times and Siena University reported Sept. 24 that Susan Collins led Troy Jackson 49% to 46% among likely voters in Maine's 2026 Senate race.
The New York Times, Portland Press Herald and Siena found Susan Collins leading Troy Jackson 49%-46% among Maine voters in a September 15-22 survey ahead of the 2026 election.
The New York Times, Portland Press Herald and Siena surveyed 619 likely Maine voters September 15-22 and found Susan Collins narrowly leading Troy Jackson in Maine's 2026 Senate race.
Decision Desk HQ shows Democrat Troy Jackson leading Republican Senator Susan Collins 47%-45% in Maine's 2026 Senate race, with both candidates near equal winning odds.
A CNN/SSRS poll released September 9 found Democrat Troy Jackson leading Republican Sen. Susan Collins 48% to 45% among likely voters in Maine's 2026 Senate race.
CNN and SSRS found Democrat Troy Jackson narrowly leading Republican incumbent Susan Collins among likely voters in Maine, with economic concerns and abortion rights influencing the contest.
On Thursday, the New York Times and Siena College reported a poll showing Susan Collins narrowly ahead of Troy Jackson among likely voters in Maine ahead of the November 3 election.
A New York Times/Portland Press Herald/Siena survey found Susan Collins at 49% and Troy Jackson at 46% among Maine likely voters on September 24, 2026, with the difference within the margin of error.
A New York Times/Siena poll conducted September 15-22 found Susan Collins leading Troy Jackson 49%-46% among likely voters in Maine, within the margin of error.
CNN ranked Maine second among 2026 Senate contests most likely to change party control after Troy Jackson narrowly led Susan Collins in a poll of Maine likely voters.
CNN/SSRS found Democrat Troy Jackson leading Republican Senator Susan Collins 48 percent to 45 percent among Maine voters surveyed August 31 through September 6, 2026.
9/9/2026 • Polling & Race Ratings • General
CNN / Jennifer Agiesta, Ariel Edwards-Levy, Edward Wu79
CNN and SSRS found Troy Jackson leading Susan Collins 48% to 45% among Maine likely voters in a September 2026 poll, leaving the Senate contest statistically tied.
CNN-SSRS found Troy Jackson narrowly leading Susan Collins in Maine and Abdul El-Sayed narrowly leading Mike Rogers in Michigan from August 31 to September 6, 2026.
A Washington Post-Schar School poll conducted Sept. 30-Oct. 5 found Troy Jackson leading Susan Collins 50%-46% among likely voters in Maine's 2026 Senate race.
Suffolk University found Democrat Troy Jackson leading Republican incumbent Susan Collins 49% to 47% in an October 8-11 poll of likely voters in Maine's 2026 Senate race.
In late September, co/efficient and AARP surveys found Susan Collins and Troy Jackson narrowly divided among likely voters in Maine's 2026 U.S. Senate race.
In October, Fox News and Marist polls showed Susan Collins and Troy Jackson in a close U.S. Senate contest in Maine as tariff relief and seafood policy featured in campaign arguments.
A New York Times/Portland Press Herald/Siena poll showed Susan Collins leading Troy Jackson 49% to 46% in the 2026 Maine Senate race, in a survey conducted mostly before ProPublica's report on an FBI inquiry became public.
The New York Times and Siena University found Sept. 24 that Republican Sen. Susan Collins led Democratic nominee Troy Jackson 49% to 46% among likely voters in Maine.
The New York Times and Siena University reported September 24 that a poll of likely Maine voters showed Susan Collins leading Troy Jackson 49% to 46% in Maine's 2026 Senate contest.
CNN/SSRS found Troy Jackson leading Susan Collins by three points among likely Maine voters in an August 31 to September 6 poll, within the margin of error.
The New York Times and Siena College found Susan Collins leading Troy Jackson 49%-46% among likely Maine voters in a September 15-22 poll conducted in Maine.
In September 2026, polls of Maine likely voters showed Republican Susan Collins and Democrat Troy Jackson in a close U.S. Senate race, with varying narrow leads.
Recent polls in Maine show Democrat Troy Jackson narrowly leading Republican Senator Susan Collins in the 2026 U.S. Senate contest as the race attracts national attention.
A Washington Post-Schar School poll conducted September 30 through October 5 in Maine found Democrat Troy Jackson leading Republican Sen. Susan Collins 50% to 46%.
In Maine, Susan Collins and Troy Jackson remained tied in two late-September and early-October polls, while a newer Marist poll showed Jackson ahead by four points.
In October polling of Maine voters, Marist showed Troy Jackson leading Susan Collins 51-47 while YouGov found a 50-50 tie, and the Cook Political Report rated the 2026 Senate race a toss-up.
University of New Hampshire polling in Maine before Democratic nominee selection found Troy Jackson leading Susan Collins 49% to 46% among likely voters.
In October, a Suffolk University poll showed Democrat Troy Jackson leading Senator Susan Collins 49% to 47% among likely voters in Maine's Senate race.
Polymarket and Kalshi favored Democratic nominee Troy Jackson over Republican incumbent Susan Collins in Maine during 2026 Senate race betting, while recent polling showed a narrower Jackson lead.
From Oct. 16 to 20, Beacon Research and Shaw & Company Research surveyed Maine voters and found Susan Collins and Troy Jackson tied at 49% in the 2026 Senate race.
A Fox News poll conducted August 6-10 among Maine registered voters found Democrat Troy Jackson leading Republican Senator Susan Collins 48%-46% in the 2026 Senate race.
In late September, polls of Maine's 2026 U.S. Senate race gave conflicting results, with Susan Collins narrowly ahead in some surveys and Troy Jackson leading in another.
A New York Times-Siena University poll released in 2026 showed Republican Senator Susan Collins leading Democrat Troy Jackson by three points in Maine's 2026 Senate race.
On September 24, the New York Times and Siena University reported that Susan Collins led Troy Jackson 49% to 46% among likely Maine voters in a poll conducted in Maine.
Quantus Insights found Republican Senator Susan Collins narrowly leading Democratic challenger Troy Jackson among likely Maine voters in a September 2026 Senate race survey.
CNN reported that Democrat Troy Jackson led Republican incumbent Susan Collins 48% to 45% among likely Maine voters weeks before the November 3 midterm elections.
CNN/SSRS found Democrat Troy Jackson leading Republican Sen. Susan Collins 48% to 45% among 880 likely Maine voters surveyed August 31 through September 6.
CNN and SSRS found Troy Jackson leading Susan Collins 48% to 45% among likely Maine voters in a 2026 Senate race shaped by negative views of Collins, Donald Trump, and economic conditions.
CNN and SSRS found no clear leader in Maine's 2026 Senate contest after surveying 880 likely voters statewide from August 31 through September 6, 2026.
CNN and SSRS found Troy Jackson leading Susan Collins 48% to 45% among likely Maine voters in a poll conducted August 31 through September 6 and released September 9.
On October 24, 2026, RealClearPolling's Maine Senate average showed Democrat Troy Jackson leading Republican Sen. Susan Collins by 1.4 points in Maine as control of the chamber remained at stake.
CNN found Troy Jackson leading Susan Collins 48% to 45% among 880 Maine voters as both campaigns intensified advertising aimed at independents and persuadable voters.
Susan Collins-led polling in Maine followed Graham Platner removal and Troy Jackson replacement, with support reported among working-class voters and non-college-degree voters in Central and Northern Maine.
During the 2026 U.S. Senate campaign in Maine, a New York Times-Siena University poll showed Republican Susan Collins leading Democratic nominee Troy Jackson by three points, within the margin of error.
A September 15-22 New York Times/Portland Press Herald/Siena poll found Susan Collins leading Troy Jackson 49% to 46% among likely voters in Maine, within the survey's 4.9-point margin of error.
A New York Times-Siena University poll found during the 2026 campaign that Republican Susan Collins led Democrat Troy Jackson by three points in Maine's Senate race.
Morning Consult reported on September 8 that Maine voters disapproved of Donald Trump by 61%-38%, as Susan Collins and Troy Jackson prepared for a competitive 2026 Senate race.
Recent Maine polling shows Republican Senator Susan Collins 12 points underwater while Democratic challenger Troy Jackson holds a three-point net-positive image in the 2026 Senate contest.
A New York Times-Siena University poll recently showed Senator Susan Collins leading Democrat Troy Jackson by three points in Maine’s 2026 Senate race.