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2026 Maine Senate
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Last Update: 10/27/2026 at 6:01 AM EST
Maine’s 2026 Senate Race
Coverage from OddsShopper, Kalshi News, and others
Maine’s 2026 Senate race pits Republican incumbent Susan Collins against Democrat Troy Jackson, a former Maine Senate president and fifth-generation logger.
Jackson became the nominee after Graham Platner withdrew from the Democratic contest; Jackson’s campaign has emphasized his working-class background, while Collins is known for a moderate profile and occasional breaks with her party. Polls and race ratings have described the contest as competitive, drawing attention to candidate viability, campaign resources, and the race’s potential importance to control of the Senate.
Key Articles4 of 79 articles
If you read one thing
It gives a current, evidence-backed overview of the close race and the voter coalitions that may shape it.
Best explainer
It explains why Collins’s history of outperforming polls complicates the narrow current polling picture.
The evidence
It adds reporting on Jackson’s appeal and the nomination change that shaped his challenge.
Latest development
It covers the race’s material late development: how ranked-choice tabulation and absentee voting may affect the result.
Key Issues
A narrow, unsettled toss-up
Polling ranges from narrow Jackson leads to a tie and a Collins lead, while forecasts and prediction markets do not consistently favor the same candidate. The race remains highly competitive without a reliable polling leader.
Stable
Collins’s personal electoral resilience
Collins’s record of winning in Democratic-leaning Maine and her cross-party support remain counterweights to Jackson’s challenge. That resilience is tested by current polling and concerns about her alignment with Trump.
Stable
Contrasting voter coalitions
Support varies across voter groups: Jackson leads younger voters and women in cited surveys, while Collins retains support among some older, independent, and cross-party voters. Turnout and the electorate’s composition therefore matter in the close contest.
Key Numbers
about nine points
Biden's margin in Maine in 2020
“Maine has leaned Democratic in recent federal elections: Kamala Harris carried it by about seven points in 2024, and Joe Biden by about nine points in 2020.”
40% approval
Donald Trump approval rating
“Decision Desk HQ’s averages show Trump with approximately 40% approval and 59% disapproval, while Democrats lead the generic congressional ballot 48%-41%. Still, Collins’s past performance suggests Jackson faces a difficult challenge despite his narrow polling advantage.”
48%-41% percentage points
generic congressional ballot preference, Democrats versus Republicans
“Decision Desk HQ’s averages show Trump with approximately 40% approval and 59% disapproval, while Democrats lead the generic congressional ballot 48%-41%. Still, Collins’s past performance suggests Jackson faces a difficult challenge despite his narrow polling advantage.”
13-point points
Jackson's lead among independents in the Washington Post-Schar School poll
“A Washington Post-Schar School poll of 800 likely voters conducted September 30 to October 5 put Jackson ahead 50% to 46%, with a 13-point lead among independents.”
49% to 46% percent
New York Times/Siena poll result, Collins to Jackson
“A New York Times/Siena poll showing Collins ahead 49% to 46% helped lift her market price from a late-September low of 27%; Jackson subsequently fell to 62%.”
Looking Back
97 Day Timeline
Jul 22
Aug 7
Aug 23
Sep 8
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Oct 10
Oct 26
The Story So Far
New development
Record early absentee voting adds a turnout milestone to the close race
Early absentee voting has set a record, a new turnout milestone in the close Collins–Jackson contest. The article also notes that a tight result could make ranked-choice tabulation consequential, but does not establish an effect on either candidate’s prospects.
Previously
Susan Collins and Troy Jackson are competing in a closely contested 2026 Maine Senate race that could affect control of the chamber. Jackson became the Democratic nominee in July after Graham Platner withdrew, leaving a short campaign period before Election Day. October polling ranges from narrow Jackson leads to a statistical tie, while Collins relies on her incumbency, statewide profile and cross-party appeal. The campaigns are contesting Collins’s record and relationship with Donald Trump alongside issues including abortion rights, household costs and federal funding for Maine.
History
10/27/2026
The update adds ranked-choice voting as a possible factor in how quickly Maine’s close race is decided. The polling and overall toss-up framing otherwise remain consistent with the previous version.
10/25/2026
The current version adds federal funding for Maine as another campaign issue; the race’s closeness, candidates, and stakes remain consistent with the previous account.
All Articles79 articles
Important
In August 2026, Kalshi bettors priced Democratic nominee Troy Jackson ahead of Republican Senator Susan Collins in Maine's Senate race, despite models favoring Collins.
8/20/2026 • Polling & Race Ratings • General
As of October 16, 2026, polls and prediction markets showed a close U.S. Senate contest between Susan Collins and Troy Jackson in Maine ahead of the November 3 election.
10/17/2026 • Polling & Race Ratings • General
In the weeks before the 2026 midterm election, Republican Sen. Susan Collins remains competitive against Democrat Troy Jackson in Maine, with polls showing a close race and cross-party support aiding Collins.
10/6/2026 • Polling & Race Ratings • General
During the 2026 Maine Senate campaign, Democrat Troy Jackson leads Republican Senator Susan Collins narrowly in recent polls, making Maine a pivotal Democratic target.
9/7/2026 • Polling & Race Ratings • General
Troy Jackson narrowly leads Senator Susan Collins in Decision Desk HQ's Maine polling average for the 2026 U.S. Senate election, while both candidates have roughly equal forecasted winning chances.
9/17/2026 • Polling & Race Ratings • General
Pollsters and election analysts in Maine report that Democrat Troy Jackson has a narrow lead over Republican Sen. Susan Collins before the 2026 Senate election.
8/27/2026 • Polling & Race Ratings • General
Susan Collins faces Democratic nominee Troy Jackson in Maine on November 3, 2026, with Jackson leading recent polls while Collins retains financial and incumbency advantages.
8/26/2026 • Polling & Race Ratings • General
During the 2026 Maine Senate campaign, Troy Jackson is using rising heating-oil costs to challenge Susan Collins as voters face higher household energy bills.
10/15/2026 • Issues & Policy Debates • General
In Maine's 2026 Senate race, Democrat Troy Jackson is challenging Republican Susan Collins, with a recent poll showing a close contest and Democrats worried about turnout.
10/21/2026 • Candidates & Campaigns • General
With two weeks before the 2026 election, Susan Collins and Democrat Troy Jackson are competing for Maine's U.S. Senate seat, where Collins's history of overperformance complicates forecasts.
10/20/2026 • Polling & Race Ratings • General
In October 2026, Maine voters are weighing Republican Susan Collins against Democrat Troy Jackson in a closely polled U.S. Senate race.
10/8/2026 • Polling & Race Ratings • General
In October 2026, Susan Collins and Troy Jackson competed in Maine for the U.S. Senate seat, with close polls highlighting independents and women as pivotal voters.
10/20/2026 • Voters & Public Opinion • General
Susan Collins and Troy Jackson are contesting a highly competitive 2026 Senate race in Maine, where Democratic and Republican groups are preparing major spending before November's election.
8/10/2026 • Candidates & Campaigns • General
UNH Survey Center polling published in a Fox News Power Rankings context found Troy Jackson leading Susan Collins by three points among likely Maine general-election voters over seven days.
7/22/2026 • Candidates & Campaigns • General
CNN ranked Maine fourth among Senate seats most likely to flip ahead of the midterms, as Susan Collins and Troy Jackson faced unclear polling and major campaign spending.
10/22/2026 • Polling & Race Ratings • General
Maine Democrats consolidated behind Troy Jackson before Election Day, giving Jackson an early polling lead over Republican Senator Susan Collins while Collins retained a major financial advantage.
8/10/2026 • Polling & Race Ratings • General
With fewer than three months before Election Day, Susan Collins and Troy Jackson are intensifying their 2026 Senate contest in Maine amid strong Democratic pickup expectations.
8/10/2026 • Polling & Race Ratings • General
On Friday in Maine, Democratic Senate nominee Troy Jackson said he was unconcerned by close polling as an early October Marist poll showed him leading Republican Sen. Susan Collins 51% to 47%.
10/23/2026 • Polling & Race Ratings • General
On October 16, 2026, Kalshi traders and pollsters showed a close Maine Senate contest, with Democrat Troy Jackson narrowly favored over Republican incumbent Susan Collins.
10/16/2026 • Polling & Race Ratings • General
In July and August 2026, Troy Jackson replaced Graham Platner and opened polling leads over Susan Collins in Maine's U.S. Senate contest.
8/15/2026 • Candidates & Campaigns • General
Susan Collins and Troy Jackson are contesting Maine's 2026 U.S. Senate race, with polls showing a close contest ahead of their Tuesday debate in Maine.
10/5/2026 • Polling & Race Ratings • General
On July 15-20, a University of New Hampshire poll among 1,178 Maine likely voters found Troy Jackson leading Susan Collins 49-46, with Cook rating the contest a toss-up.
7/27/2026 • Candidates & Campaigns • General
On October 25, 2026, Kalshi priced Troy Jackson at 60% against Susan Collins in Maine's U.S. Senate race, up from 57% on October 15.
10/25/2026 • Polling & Race Ratings • General
Maine Democratic nominee Troy Jackson is challenging Sen. Susan Collins in the 2026 Senate race, with a poll this month showing a close contest in Maine.
10/21/2026 • Polling & Race Ratings • General
On October 23, Silver Bulletin showed Democrat Troy Jackson leading Republican Susan Collins in Maine's Senate contest by 2.8 points, while Decision Desk HQ rated the race a toss-up.
10/24/2026 • Polling & Race Ratings • General
Historian Allan Lichtman forecast in October that Democrat Troy Jackson would defeat Republican Senator Susan Collins in Maine in the November 2026 U.S. Senate election.
10/9/2026 • Polling & Race Ratings • General
In mid-July, a University of New Hampshire poll showed Democrat Troy Jackson leading Republican Susan Collins 49%-46% among likely Maine general-election voters.
8/3/2026 • Polling & Race Ratings • General
Troy Jackson narrowly led Susan Collins in a mid-July University of New Hampshire poll of likely Maine voters, complicating Democratic Senate majority calculations for 2026.
8/3/2026 • Polling & Race Ratings • General
A University of New Hampshire poll in Maine during the early 2026 election cycle showed Democrat Troy Jackson leading Republican Senator Susan Collins 49% to 46%.
8/3/2026 • Polling & Race Ratings • General
Troy Jackson narrowly led Susan Collins in a mid-July University of New Hampshire poll of likely Maine general-election voters, complicating Democratic Senate majority plans.
8/3/2026 • Polling & Race Ratings • General
Kalshi showed Democrat Troy Jackson leading Susan Collins in its Maine Senate market on Wednesday, Sept. 23, 2026, after a ProPublica investigation renewed attention to donor Martin Kao's allegations.
9/23/2026 • Polling & Race Ratings • General
Inside Elections moved Maine's 2026 Senate race to Toss-up on Sept. 17, placing Republican Senator Susan Collins in a competitive contest with Democrat Troy Jackson in Maine.
9/21/2026 • Polling & Race Ratings • General
The Washington Examiner ranked Maine third among 2026 Senate flip opportunities, identifying Republican Sen. Susan Collins and Democratic nominee Troy Jackson in a toss-up contest in Maine.
9/5/2026 • Polling & Race Ratings • General
Forecasting organizations rate Senator Susan Collins's 2026 Maine reelection contest against Troy Jackson as a toss-up in Maine, amid growing disagreement over Senate control.
9/18/2026 • Polling & Race Ratings • General
Democratic nominee Troy Jackson leads Republican Senator Susan Collins in recent Maine polls during the 2026 Senate contest in Maine.
8/20/2026 • Polling & Race Ratings • General
In the 2026 Maine Senate race, Susan Collins and Troy Jackson are contesting the seat as tariffs, energy costs, and shifting poll standings shape the campaign.
10/14/2026 • Candidates & Campaigns • General
In Maine in 2026, Susan Collins and Troy Jackson are competing in a Senate race that could show whether voters split tickets alongside differing gubernatorial preferences.
8/28/2026 • Voters & Public Opinion • General
Maine Democrats selected state Sen. Troy Jackson as the 2026 Senate nominee after Graham Platner withdrew, creating a contest with Susan Collins shaped by polling, finances, and ballot-law questions.
8/6/2026 • Candidates & Campaigns • General
Troy Jackson recently moved ahead of Susan Collins in a University of New Hampshire poll of Maine's 2026 Senate race after Graham Platner's withdrawal.
8/3/2026 • Candidates & Campaigns • General
Interesting
Democrats replaced Graham Platner with Troy Jackson in July in Maine, where Jackson now narrowly leads Republican Senator Susan Collins in early polling.
8/23/2026 • Candidates & Campaigns • General
Maine Democrats nominated Troy Jackson after Graham Platner withdrew, positioning Jackson against Republican Senator Susan Collins in the November 2026 Senate election in Maine.
9/9/2026 • Candidates & Campaigns • General
Susan Collins will face Troy Jackson in Maine's 2026 Senate election after Graham Platner withdrew, with national analysts rating the contest a toss-up.
9/9/2026 • Candidates & Campaigns • General
On September 9, CNN found Democratic nominee Troy Jackson leading Republican Senator Susan Collins 48 percent to 45 percent among likely voters in Maine's competitive 2026 Senate race.
9/14/2026 • Candidates & Campaigns • General
Susan Collins is facing Democratic nominee Troy Jackson in Maine's 2026 Senate contest, which Fox News Power Rankings rates as a toss-up.
8/27/2026 • Polling & Race Ratings • General
Inside Elections shifted Maine's 2026 Senate race from Tilt Republican to Toss-up about six weeks before Election Day, citing a difficult environment for Susan Collins and polling leads for Troy Jackson.
9/22/2026 • Polling & Race Ratings • General
In Maine during the 2026 Senate campaign, Susan Collins is competing against Troy Jackson in a contest presented as a test of centrist Republican appeal.
10/25/2026 • Candidates & Campaigns • General
In the 2026 U.S. Senate race, Maine voters interviewed in Bangor described strong personal ties to Susan Collins, while some backed challenger Troy Jackson.
10/23/2026 • Voters & Public Opinion • General
In October 2026, Susan Collins and Troy Jackson contested Maine's U.S. Senate race through debates focused on Collins's relationship with Donald Trump, as polling showed a close contest.
10/25/2026 • Candidates & Campaigns • General
In its 2026 forecast, Decision Desk HQ rates Susan Collins's Maine Senate contest as a toss-up while favoring Democrat Hannah Pingree for governor.
10/19/2026 • Voters & Public Opinion • General
In 2026, Democrat Troy Jackson and Republican Sen. Susan Collins are contesting Maine's Senate seat in a race described as a major obstacle to Democratic control.
10/10/2026 • Candidates & Campaigns • General
Maine Democrats recorded higher 2026 primary turnout and selected Troy Jackson after Graham Platner withdrew, positioning Jackson to challenge Republican Senator Susan Collins in November.
8/12/2026 • Voters & Public Opinion • General
On October 26, 2026, Susan Collins and Troy Jackson were in a close U.S. Senate race in Maine, where polls showed Jackson narrowly ahead or tied.
10/26/2026 • Candidates & Campaigns • General
Troy Jackson and Susan Collins are contesting Maine's 2026 U.S. Senate seat, with the closely watched race following Jackson's July 25 nomination and an Oct. 6 debate in Maine.
10/21/2026 • Candidates & Campaigns • General
Troy Jackson became the Democratic nominee on July 25 and will challenge Republican incumbent Susan Collins in Maine's 2026 U.S. Senate election.
10/21/2026 • Candidates & Campaigns • General
Troy Jackson and Republican Sen. Susan Collins are competing in Maine's 2026 U.S. Senate election, where polling described as statistically tied makes the contest a toss-up.
10/21/2026 • Candidates & Campaigns • General
On July 25, 2026, Maine Democrats selected Troy Jackson to challenge Republican Sen. Susan Collins in Maine's closely contested 2026 U.S. Senate race.
10/21/2026 • Candidates & Campaigns • General
Maine Democrats selected former state Senate president Troy Jackson to challenge Republican incumbent Susan Collins in the 2026 Senate election after Graham Platner withdrew, with major race ratings calling the contest a toss-up.
9/9/2026 • Candidates & Campaigns • General
Susan Collins will face Troy Jackson in Maine's 2026 Senate election after Graham Platner's withdrawal, with national race analysts rating the contest a toss-up.
9/9/2026 • Candidates & Campaigns • General
Maine Democrats selected former state Senate president Troy Jackson to challenge Republican Senator Susan Collins in the 2026 general election after Graham Platner withdrew, leaving a race rated toss-up.
9/9/2026 • Candidates & Campaigns • General
Susan Collins and Troy Jackson will compete in Maine's 2026 Senate election, where analysts rate the contest a toss-up after Democratic nominee changes.
9/9/2026 • Candidates & Campaigns • General
In Maine, Troy Jackson replaced withdrawn candidate Graham Platner in July and now leads Republican Senator Susan Collins by three to four points in recent polls.
9/7/2026 • Candidates & Campaigns • General
Maine Democrats selected Troy Jackson on July 25 to replace withdrawn nominee Graham Platner, positioning Jackson against Susan Collins in a pivotal statewide Senate contest.
8/25/2026 • Candidates & Campaigns • General
During the 2026 Maine Senate race, Democrat Troy Jackson replaced Graham Platner and challenged Republican incumbent Susan Collins amid polling gains and Democratic turnout concerns.
8/24/2026 • Candidates & Campaigns • General
Maine Democrats replaced Graham Platner with Troy Jackson after Platner’s campaign collapsed, and two subsequent polls showed Jackson narrowly leading Susan Collins in the 2026 Senate contest.
8/18/2026 • Candidates & Campaigns • General
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Joe Manchin campaigned for Troy Jackson and Susan Collins, respectively, during the 2026 Maine Senate contest this week in Portland and Androscoggin County, as three polls showed Jackson narrowly leading.
10/20/2026 • Endorsements & Surrogates • General
Maine Secretary of State Shenna Bellows and political scientist Mark Brewer said on October 26, 2026, that ranked-choice tabulation could delay the outcome of the close Collins-Jackson U.S. Senate race in Maine.
10/26/2026 • Election Administration & Ballot Access • General
During early voting in Maine in 2026, the Senate Leadership Fund's radio ad targeting Troy Jackson drew backlash as Susan Collins faced questions about her record and reelection prospects.
10/25/2026 • Outside Spending & Advocacy • General
At a Maine campaign event during the 2026 Senate race, Democrat Troy Jackson questioned Susan Collins's record as a RealClearPolitics polling average showed him leading her by 1.4 points.
10/23/2026 • Candidates & Campaigns • General
On Oct. 23, 2026, Bangor voters expressed confidence in Republican Sen. Susan Collins's reelection campaign in Maine, despite polls reportedly showing Democrat Troy Jackson slightly ahead.
10/23/2026 • Voters & Public Opinion • General
During the 2026 Maine Senate campaign, Bangor voters voiced confidence in incumbent Susan Collins, whom David Marcus said benefits from familiarity and perceived independence despite Troy Jackson's slight polling lead.
10/23/2026 • Voters & Public Opinion • General
In Maine's 2026 Senate race, Democratic nominee Troy Jackson replaced withdrawn candidate Graham Platner and moved ahead of Republican Senator Susan Collins in recent polling.
8/15/2026 • Candidates & Campaigns • General
In the 2026 Maine Senate race, Democrat Troy Jackson replaced Graham Platner and now leads Republican Senator Susan Collins by three to four points in recent polls.
9/7/2026 • Candidates & Campaigns • General
Susan Collins and Troy Jackson are contesting Maine's U.S. Senate seat in the November 3, 2026 election, with ABC News rating the race a tossup.
10/26/2026 • Candidates & Campaigns • General
Susan Collins remains favored in Maine's 2026 Senate contest after Troy Jackson replaced withdrawn Democratic candidate Graham Platner following controversy surrounding Platner's conduct.
8/30/2026 • Candidates & Campaigns • General
Troy Jackson replaced Graham Platner as Maine's Democratic Senate challenger in July and leads Republican incumbent Susan Collins by three to four points in recent polling.
9/14/2026 • Candidates & Campaigns • General
The Maine Democratic Party selected Troy Jackson to replace withdrawn nominee Graham Platner, intensifying Susan Collins's 2026 reelection contest in Maine amid unfavorable national conditions for Republicans.
9/7/2026 • Candidates & Campaigns • General
Troy Jackson replaced Graham Platner as the Democratic Senate nominee in Maine in July and recently led Republican incumbent Susan Collins by three to four points.
9/7/2026 • Candidates & Campaigns • General
Maine Democrats selected former state Senator Troy Jackson for the 2026 Senate race after Graham Platner withdrew, leaving Jackson to challenge Republican Senator Susan Collins in a toss-up contest.
9/6/2026 • Candidates & Campaigns • General
Maine Democrats replaced Graham Platner with Troy Jackson after Platner withdrew from the 2026 Senate race, reshaping the contest against Susan Collins in Maine.
8/24/2026 • Candidates & Campaigns • General