2026 Maine Senate Race2026 Maine Senate RaceCoverage from Action Network, Trending Politics, and others
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The 2026 Maine Senate race is a contest between Democratic nominee Troy Jackson and Republican incumbent Susan Collins.
CNN/SSRS polling reported Jackson ahead by 48% to 45%, a result within the survey’s margin of error, while many voters remained uncommitted or unfamiliar with Jackson. Voters’ economic concerns, including the cost of living and tariffs, figure prominently alongside views on Donald Trump and abortion rights after the Dobbs ruling. The race brings together candidate evaluations, partisan sentiment and questions about which issues will matter most to Maine voters.
The Marist results add a distinct, recent poll showing how likely-voter turnout leaves the race statistically unresolved.
Createlize / News Admin
Key Issues
01
A statistically unresolved polling contest
Recent polls show Jackson narrowly ahead or the candidates tied, with leads generally within sampling error. Different samples and turnout patterns leave the contest without a clear polling leader; the new evidence reinforces the close, stable picture.
Stable
Drawn from 4 articles
02
Voter choices center on Collins more than Jackson
Available polling suggests many voters’ choices are driven more by views of Collins than by Jackson personally. Jackson’s support is often described as opposition to Collins, while Collins also retains personally motivated support.
Stable
Drawn from 3 articles
03
Trump alignment is a liability, but not a complete break
Polls report substantial concern that Collins aligns too closely with Trump, making the association a potential vulnerability. She nevertheless draws some support from Trump-disapproving voters, so the liability is not absolute.
Stable
Drawn from 3 articles
04
Economic strain remains a salient voter concern
Survey evidence identifies economic pressure as a leading concern and reports many voters feel worse off than two years earlier. Campaign messaging points to local industry support and tariff relief, but the available evidence does not establish that these measures have shifted candidate support.
Stable
Drawn from 3 articles
Key Numbers
45% percent
likely voters supporting Susan Collins
Maine · August 31 through September 6, 2026
“In Maine, 48% of likely voters back Jackson and 45% support Collins. The result is within the survey's margin of sampling error.”
CNN and 12 other articles
49% percent
likely voters supporting Troy Jackson
Maine likely voters · Oct. 16–20, 2026
“Despite those views, Collins and Jackson are tied at 49%. All survey interviews were completed after the candidates’ Oct. 15 debate.”
“The CNN polls of likely voters were conducted online and by telephone from Oct. 20-27, 2026 in Michigan and Texas and Oct. 20-26, 2026 in Kansas and Maine. Registered voters were randomly sampled from both registered voter lists and a probability-based panel. Results among likely voters include all registered voters in the poll weighted for their predicted likelihood of voting in this year's election. Results among the 838 likely voters in Kansas have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 4.5 percentage points; among the 783 likely voters in Maine, the margin of sampling error is 4.5 percentage points; among the 768 likely voters in Michigan it is 4.7 percentage points, and among the 923 likely voters in Texas it is 4.2 percentage points.”
Keyt and 8 other articles
4.5 points
Poll margin of error
Polls of likely voters · Oct. 20-27
“The CNN/SSRS Kansas poll was conducted from Oct. 20-27 among 783 likely voters in Maine and 838 likely voters in Kansas. The polls have a margin of error of 4.5 points.”
Phl17 and 4 other articles
619 voters
Maine voters surveyed
Sept. 15-22
“Among 619 Maine voters surveyed Sept. 15-22, 49% said they were likely to vote for Collins and 46% for Jackson. The result is Jackson’s weakest in a public poll since he entered the race in July. A separate UMass Lowell/YouGov poll, published Sept. 24 and conducted Aug. 28-Sept. 14, showed Jackson leading by five points.”
The Sacramento Bee and 3 other articles
Looking Back
402 Day Timeline
Articles published over time. Hover any bar for the period and its article count.
Sep '25
Dec '25
Jan '26
Apr '26
Jun '26
Aug '26
Oct '26
The Story So Far
No material change
The new reports add another poll showing Jackson narrowly ahead of Collins, but the lead remains within sampling error and does not materially change the assessment of a close, uncertain race.
Previously
Late-October polling puts Democrat Troy Jackson slightly ahead of Republican incumbent Susan Collins, but the reported margins fall within sampling error and forecasts describe the contest as a toss-up. A separate Marist poll also finds a narrow Jackson lead, while voter assessments of Collins, candidate favorability, turnout motivation, advertising exposure, and economic concerns add context to the close race. Most of the apparent volume comes from republication of the same CNN/SSRS survey rather than independent polls.
History
11/01/2026
A newly included Data for Progress poll adds another narrow Jackson lead, while CNN/SSRS comparisons suggest little movement since late summer. The added evidence reinforces the race’s close, stable polling picture rather than changing its interpretation.
10/31/2026
A newly prominent CNN/SSRS poll puts Jackson four points ahead, still within sampling error. Added survey details reveal different supporter motivations and greater exposure to pro-Collins advertising, while repeated republication means the poll volume is not independent corroboration.
Eight days before Election Day, prediction markets put Democrat Troy Jackson near 60% to defeat Senator Susan Collins in Maine's closely polled Senate race.
Suffolk University found Troy Jackson leading Susan Collins 49% to 47% among likely Maine voters in an October poll, with the result within the margin of error.
The Washington Post-Schar School poll found Troy Jackson leading Susan Collins 50% to 46% among likely Maine voters, based on interviews conducted Sept. 30-Oct. 5.
The Washington Post-Schar School poll found Troy Jackson leading Susan Collins among likely voters in Maine in a survey conducted September 30 to October 5.
The Washington Post and George Washington University Schar School found Democrat Troy Jackson leading Republican Susan Collins 50%-46% in a Maine Senate poll conducted September 30-October 5.
The Washington Post and George Washington University's Schar School released a poll Friday showing Troy Jackson leading Susan Collins 50% to 46% in Maine after fieldwork from Sept. 30 to Oct. 5.
A New York Times/Siena poll conducted September 15–22 in Maine found Sen. Susan Collins leading Democratic nominee Troy Jackson 49% to 46% among likely voters.
In September 2026, University of New Hampshire polling showed Susan Collins narrowing her deficit among women in Maine, while Troy Jackson maintained a small lead.
An AARP-commissioned poll conducted Sept. 20-22 found Troy Jackson leading Susan Collins 50 percent to 47 percent among likely Maine voters, with Collins ahead among voters 50 and older.
Democrat Troy Jackson led Republican Senator Susan Collins in recent Maine polls and prediction markets as of August 6, making the 2026 Senate contest a national toss-up.
Troy Jackson leads Susan Collins in a UNH States of Opinion poll released Tuesday as Democratic primary voters back Jackson after Graham Platner withdrew.
A New York Times-Siena College poll conducted September 15-22 found Susan Collins leading Troy Jackson 49% to 46% among likely Maine voters ahead of the November 3, 2026, election.
Less than a month before Maine's 2026 U.S. Senate election, former President Barack Obama endorsed Democrat Troy Jackson as polls showed a close contest with Susan Collins.
A Fox News survey conducted August 6 to 10 found Troy Jackson narrowly leading Susan Collins among Maine voters as immigration concerns intensified after a Biddeford shooting.
Troy Jackson led Susan Collins in three polls conducted in July and August 2026 as Maine's two-candidate Senate contest emerged as a Democratic target.
On July 21, a University of New Hampshire Survey Center poll found Troy Jackson 49% and Susan Collins 46% among likely Maine voters for a November Senate matchup.
University of New Hampshire polling conducted July 15-20 shows Troy Jackson slightly ahead of Susan Collins in a hypothetical Maine Senate matchup and leading Democrats in primary testing.
Fox News found Troy Jackson leading Susan Collins 48 percent to 46 percent from August 6-10 among Maine voters, with the result within the margin of error.
On October 27, 2026, Marist reported that Democrat Troy Jackson led Senator Susan Collins 49% to 47% among likely voters in Maine, a result within the poll's margin of error.
Fox News found Susan Collins and Troy Jackson tied among likely voters in Maine in a poll conducted October 16-20, less than two weeks before Election Day.
Suffolk University found Democratic challenger Troy Jackson leading Republican Sen. Susan Collins 49%-47% among likely voters in Maine in an Oct. 8-11, 2026, poll.
The New York Times and Siena University found Susan Collins leading Troy Jackson 49%-46% in a September 15-22, 2025 poll of Maine voters released September 24.
Three polling organizations released conflicting results Thursday in the Maine 2026 U.S. Senate race, showing Democrat Troy Jackson and Republican Susan Collins in a close contest.
CNN and SSRS released a poll Thursday showing Democrat Troy Jackson ahead of Sen. Susan Collins 49% to 45% among likely voters in Maine's 2026 Senate race.
In an October poll of likely voters in Maine, Fox News found Republican Senator Susan Collins and Democratic challenger Troy Jackson tied at 49 percent as the 2026 Senate contest approached its closing weeks.
Beacon Research and Shaw & Company Research found Susan Collins and Troy Jackson tied among likely voters in Maine in a poll conducted October 16-20, 2026.
Suffolk University found Troy Jackson leading Susan Collins 49% to 47% in a poll of likely Maine voters conducted October 8–11, ahead of their October 15 debate.
On Oct. 29, recent polls showed Democrat Troy Jackson and Republican Sen. Susan Collins in a close U.S. Senate contest in Maine, with surveys conducted Oct. 8-26 giving Jackson leads of zero to four points.
Fox News found Democratic nominee Troy Jackson leading Republican Senator Susan Collins 48% to 46% in Maine on August 6-10, intensifying competition before the November 3 election.
Troy Jackson led Susan Collins in three recent Maine polls and received favorable August 6 prediction-market odds after becoming the Democratic nominee in July.
A Washington Post-Schar School poll conducted Sept. 30-Oct. 5 found Troy Jackson leading Susan Collins 50%-46% among likely voters in Maine's 2026 Senate race.
Hart Research found Troy Jackson leading Susan Collins 49% to 45% among 802 likely Maine voters surveyed for Senate Majority PAC from July 27 through August 1.
AARP found Democrat Troy Jackson leading Sen. Susan Collins 50% to 47% among likely Maine voters surveyed September 20-22, while Collins led older swing voters.
From Sept. 20-22, Fabrizio Ward and Impact Research surveyed likely voters in Maine for AARP, finding Jackson narrowly ahead overall and Collins favored among voters age 50 and older.
A New York Times, Portland Press Herald and Siena poll conducted September 15–22 found Susan Collins leading Troy Jackson 49% to 46% in Maine's 2026 Senate race.
A New York Times, Portland Press Herald, and Siena poll conducted September 15 to 22 found Susan Collins leading Troy Jackson 49% to 46% among likely Maine voters.
On Thursday, University of New Hampshire and UMass Lowell-YouGov polls showed Troy Jackson leading Susan Collins in Maine's 2026 U.S. Senate race, while a Times poll showed Collins ahead.
The New York Times and Siena University reported Sept. 24 that Susan Collins led Troy Jackson 49% to 46% among likely voters in Maine's 2026 Senate race.
The New York Times, Portland Press Herald and Siena found Susan Collins leading Troy Jackson 49%-46% among Maine voters in a September 15-22 survey ahead of the 2026 election.
The New York Times, Portland Press Herald and Siena surveyed 619 likely Maine voters September 15-22 and found Susan Collins narrowly leading Troy Jackson in Maine's 2026 Senate race.
Decision Desk HQ shows Democrat Troy Jackson leading Republican Senator Susan Collins 47%-45% in Maine's 2026 Senate race, with both candidates near equal winning odds.
A CNN/SSRS poll released September 9 found Democrat Troy Jackson leading Republican Sen. Susan Collins 48% to 45% among likely voters in Maine's 2026 Senate race.
CNN and SSRS found Democrat Troy Jackson narrowly leading Republican incumbent Susan Collins among likely voters in Maine, with economic concerns and abortion rights influencing the contest.
On Thursday, the New York Times and Siena College reported a poll showing Susan Collins narrowly ahead of Troy Jackson among likely voters in Maine ahead of the November 3 election.
A New York Times/Portland Press Herald/Siena survey found Susan Collins at 49% and Troy Jackson at 46% among Maine likely voters on September 24, 2026, with the difference within the margin of error.
A New York Times/Siena poll conducted September 15-22 found Susan Collins leading Troy Jackson 49%-46% among likely voters in Maine, within the margin of error.
CNN ranked Maine second among 2026 Senate contests most likely to change party control after Troy Jackson narrowly led Susan Collins in a poll of Maine likely voters.
CNN/SSRS found Democrat Troy Jackson leading Republican Senator Susan Collins 48 percent to 45 percent among Maine voters surveyed August 31 through September 6, 2026.
9/9/2026 • Polling & Race Ratings • General
CNN / Jennifer Agiesta, Ariel Edwards-Levy, Edward Wu79
CNN and SSRS found Troy Jackson leading Susan Collins 48% to 45% among Maine likely voters in a September 2026 poll, leaving the Senate contest statistically tied.
CNN-SSRS found Troy Jackson narrowly leading Susan Collins in Maine and Abdul El-Sayed narrowly leading Mike Rogers in Michigan from August 31 to September 6, 2026.
The Marist Poll found Democrat Troy Jackson leading incumbent Susan Collins 49% to 47% among Maine likely voters in interviews conducted October 22-25, 2026.
One week before Election Day in Maine, Democrat Troy Jackson led Republican Susan Collins by two points in a Marist poll as both candidates made final campaign appeals.
CNN/SSRS reported Thursday that Troy Jackson led Susan Collins 49 percent to 45 percent among likely voters in Maine, based on polling conducted October 20-27.
CNN/SSRS reported Thursday that Democrat Troy Jackson led Republican Susan Collins 49 percent to 45 percent in a Maine Senate poll conducted October 20-27.
In October, Fox News and Marist polls showed Susan Collins and Troy Jackson in a close U.S. Senate contest in Maine as tariff relief and seafood policy featured in campaign arguments.
Suffolk University found Democrat Troy Jackson leading Republican incumbent Susan Collins 49% to 47% in an October 8-11 poll of likely voters in Maine's 2026 Senate race.
A CNN-commissioned SSRS poll released Thursday found Troy Jackson leading Susan Collins 49% to 45% among likely Maine voters in the 2026 U.S. Senate race.
In late September, co/efficient and AARP surveys found Susan Collins and Troy Jackson narrowly divided among likely voters in Maine's 2026 U.S. Senate race.
CNN's October 20-26, 2026 poll of likely voters in Maine found Democrat Troy Jackson at 49% and Republican Sen. Susan Collins at 45% in the U.S. Senate race.
In the week before Maine's 2026 Senate election, prediction markets gave Democrat Troy Jackson a 64% chance to defeat incumbent Susan Collins, as polls showed a close contest.
A Washington Post-Schar School poll conducted September 30 through October 5 in Maine found Democrat Troy Jackson leading Republican Sen. Susan Collins 50% to 46%.
In Maine, Susan Collins and Troy Jackson remained tied in two late-September and early-October polls, while a newer Marist poll showed Jackson ahead by four points.
In October polling of Maine voters, Marist showed Troy Jackson leading Susan Collins 51-47 while YouGov found a 50-50 tie, and the Cook Political Report rated the 2026 Senate race a toss-up.
A New York Times/Portland Press Herald/Siena poll showed Susan Collins leading Troy Jackson 49% to 46% in the 2026 Maine Senate race, in a survey conducted mostly before ProPublica's report on an FBI inquiry became public.
The New York Times and Siena University found Sept. 24 that Republican Sen. Susan Collins led Democratic nominee Troy Jackson 49% to 46% among likely voters in Maine.
The New York Times and Siena University reported September 24 that a poll of likely Maine voters showed Susan Collins leading Troy Jackson 49% to 46% in Maine's 2026 Senate contest.
CNN/SSRS found Troy Jackson leading Susan Collins by three points among likely Maine voters in an August 31 to September 6 poll, within the margin of error.
The New York Times and Siena College found Susan Collins leading Troy Jackson 49%-46% among likely Maine voters in a September 15-22 poll conducted in Maine.
In September 2026, polls of Maine likely voters showed Republican Susan Collins and Democrat Troy Jackson in a close U.S. Senate race, with varying narrow leads.
Recent polls in Maine show Democrat Troy Jackson narrowly leading Republican Senator Susan Collins in the 2026 U.S. Senate contest as the race attracts national attention.
University of New Hampshire polling in Maine before Democratic nominee selection found Troy Jackson leading Susan Collins 49% to 46% among likely voters.
In late October 2026, CNN/SSRS, Marist, Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research, and Suffolk reported close Maine Senate polling between Troy Jackson and Susan Collins in Maine.
Marist Poll found Tuesday that Democrat Troy Jackson led Republican Sen. Susan Collins 49% to 47% in Maine's U.S. Senate race, a week before voting ended.
Marist University found Troy Jackson leading Susan Collins by two points among Maine likely voters in a poll conducted October 22–25, with a 6.6-point margin of error.
Marist University released a Tuesday poll showing Democrat Troy Jackson narrowly leading incumbent Susan Collins among registered voters in Maine ahead of the November 3 midterm election.
Marist University reported Tuesday that Democrat Troy Jackson led Sen. Susan Collins 49% to 47% in Maine before the Nov. 3 midterm election, within the poll's margin of error.
Marist University reported on October 27, 2026, that Democrat Troy Jackson led Sen. Susan Collins 49%-47% among registered voters in Maine's U.S. Senate race.
Marist University reported Tuesday that Troy Jackson led Susan Collins 49% to 47% among Maine registered voters in a Senate race poll conducted ahead of the midterm election.
10/27/2026 • Polling & Race Ratings • General
Leader Publications / Chris Wade; The Center Square contributor69
A Marist University poll conducted last week in Maine showed Democrat Troy Jackson leading Senator Susan Collins 49 percent to 47 percent among likely voters, as Harry Enten cited President Donald Trump's low approval as a potential advantage for Jackson.
Marist University reported Tuesday that Troy Jackson led Susan Collins by two points in its Maine Senate poll ahead of the November 3 midterm election.
CNN/SSRS reported Thursday that Democrat Troy Jackson led Republican Sen. Susan Collins 49 percent to 45 percent in Maine, based on October 20-27 likely-voter interviews.
In October, a Suffolk University poll showed Democrat Troy Jackson leading Senator Susan Collins 49% to 47% among likely voters in Maine's Senate race.
Data for Progress found Democrat Troy Jackson leading Republican Senator Susan Collins 50% to 45% in an October 23-27, 2026, likely-voter poll in Maine.
CNN and SSRS reported October 20-27 that Democrat Troy Jackson led Senator Susan Collins 49% to 45% among likely voters in Maine, within the poll's margin of error.
From Oct. 16 to 20, Beacon Research and Shaw & Company Research surveyed Maine voters and found Susan Collins and Troy Jackson tied at 49% in the 2026 Senate race.
Polymarket and Kalshi favored Democratic nominee Troy Jackson over Republican incumbent Susan Collins in Maine during 2026 Senate race betting, while recent polling showed a narrower Jackson lead.
On October 24, 2026, RealClearPolling's Maine Senate average showed Democrat Troy Jackson leading Republican Sen. Susan Collins by 1.4 points in Maine as control of the chamber remained at stake.
A Fox News poll conducted August 6-10 among Maine registered voters found Democrat Troy Jackson leading Republican Senator Susan Collins 48%-46% in the 2026 Senate race.
In late September, polls of Maine's 2026 U.S. Senate race gave conflicting results, with Susan Collins narrowly ahead in some surveys and Troy Jackson leading in another.
A New York Times-Siena University poll released in 2026 showed Republican Senator Susan Collins leading Democrat Troy Jackson by three points in Maine's 2026 Senate race.
On September 24, the New York Times and Siena University reported that Susan Collins led Troy Jackson 49% to 46% among likely Maine voters in a poll conducted in Maine.
Quantus Insights found Republican Senator Susan Collins narrowly leading Democratic challenger Troy Jackson among likely Maine voters in a September 2026 Senate race survey.
CNN reported that Democrat Troy Jackson led Republican incumbent Susan Collins 48% to 45% among likely Maine voters weeks before the November 3 midterm elections.
CNN/SSRS found Democrat Troy Jackson leading Republican Sen. Susan Collins 48% to 45% among 880 likely Maine voters surveyed August 31 through September 6.
CNN and SSRS found Troy Jackson leading Susan Collins 48% to 45% among likely Maine voters in a 2026 Senate race shaped by negative views of Collins, Donald Trump, and economic conditions.
CNN and SSRS found no clear leader in Maine's 2026 Senate contest after surveying 880 likely voters statewide from August 31 through September 6, 2026.
CNN and SSRS found Troy Jackson leading Susan Collins 48% to 45% among likely Maine voters in a poll conducted August 31 through September 6 and released September 9.
Maine voters will decide on November 3, 2026, whether Republican Sen. Susan Collins or Democrat Troy Jackson will represent Maine in the U.S. Senate, with a late-October Marist poll showing Jackson ahead by two points.
In October 2026, Marist, Suffolk, and Fox News polls showed Democrat Troy Jackson and Republican Sen. Susan Collins closely competing in Maine's U.S. Senate race.
Marist reported Tuesday, October 27, that Troy Jackson led Susan Collins among likely voters in Maine's U.S. Senate race, one week before the midterm election.
Marist Poll and Echelon Insights with NetChoice reported Tuesday that Democrat Troy Jackson led Susan Collins in Maine Senate polling, including among early voters.
10/27/2026 • Polling & Race Ratings • General
The Rochester Sentinel / Chris Wade; The Center Square contributor62
Marist University reported Tuesday that Troy Jackson led Susan Collins 49% to 47% among nearly 1,500 registered voters in Maine ahead of next week's midterm election.
Beginning October 20, SSRS polling for CNN found Troy Jackson leading Susan Collins 49% to 45% among likely voters in Maine ahead of the November midterm election.
CNN found Troy Jackson leading Susan Collins 48% to 45% among 880 Maine voters as both campaigns intensified advertising aimed at independents and persuadable voters.
Susan Collins-led polling in Maine followed Graham Platner removal and Troy Jackson replacement, with support reported among working-class voters and non-college-degree voters in Central and Northern Maine.
During the 2026 U.S. Senate campaign in Maine, a New York Times-Siena University poll showed Republican Susan Collins leading Democratic nominee Troy Jackson by three points, within the margin of error.
A September 15-22 New York Times/Portland Press Herald/Siena poll found Susan Collins leading Troy Jackson 49% to 46% among likely voters in Maine, within the survey's 4.9-point margin of error.
A New York Times-Siena University poll found during the 2026 campaign that Republican Susan Collins led Democrat Troy Jackson by three points in Maine's Senate race.
Morning Consult reported on September 8 that Maine voters disapproved of Donald Trump by 61%-38%, as Susan Collins and Troy Jackson prepared for a competitive 2026 Senate race.
Recent Maine polling shows Republican Senator Susan Collins 12 points underwater while Democratic challenger Troy Jackson holds a three-point net-positive image in the 2026 Senate contest.
A New York Times-Siena University poll recently showed Senator Susan Collins leading Democrat Troy Jackson by three points in Maine’s 2026 Senate race.