Maine Senate Race Remains Toss-UpMaine Senate Race Remains Toss-UpCoverage from Bangor Daily News, Newsweek, and others
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Maine’s 2026 Senate race is effectively tied: Troy Jackson holds a small but inconsistent polling edge over Susan Collins, while economic pressure, Donald Trump’s unpopularity, and Collins’s crossover strength shape the contest.
As a material new development, it examines whether Jackson is eroding the crossover support that has helped Collins win before.
The Portland Press Herald / Randy Billings
Key Issues
01
The race has no clear polling leader
Jackson has led several recent surveys, but the margins are generally within sampling error and results vary by poll and voter group. A Quantus survey slightly favoring Collins reinforces the picture of an effectively tied contest, not a dependable Jackson lead.
Stable
Drawn from 5 articles
02
Trump’s unpopularity pressures Collins
Broad disapproval of Trump and opposition to his policies give Jackson an opening, especially among independents and some former Collins supporters. Jackson’s support is also substantially motivated by opposition to Collins and national Republican politics, rather than strong personal enthusiasm for Jackson.
Stable
Drawn from 5 articles
03
Economic pressure and tariffs favor Jackson’s attack
Cost of living and economic conditions remain leading voter concerns, while surveys find widespread opposition to tariffs on Canadian goods. The issue gives Jackson a locally salient line of attack, though Collins has criticized the tariffs and sought to distance herself from them.
Stable
Drawn from 4 articles
04
Collins retains advantages but faces a thinner crossover path
Collins’s incumbency, name recognition, seniority, federal-delivery record, and history of outperforming polls remain counterweights to Jackson’s polling strength. But reporting and polling indicate less Democratic crossover support and an independent-voter advantage for Jackson, leaving Collins’s traditional coalition under pressure.
Mixed
Drawn from 5 articles
Key Numbers
45% percent
likely voters supporting Susan Collins
Maine · August 31 through September 6, 2026
“In Maine, 48% of likely voters back Jackson and 45% support Collins. The result is within the survey's margin of sampling error.”
CNN and 5 other articles
48% percent
likely voters supporting Troy Jackson
Maine · August 31–September 6, 2026
“In Maine, 48% of likely voters support Jackson and 45% support Collins, also within the margin of sampling error.”
CNN and 3 other articles
plus or minus 3.7 percentage points
margin of sampling error
Maine poll
“In Maine, Democrat Troy Jackson leads Republican incumbent Susan Collins 48% to 45%, a result within the poll's margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.7 percentage points. About 18% of likely voters say they could change their minds or have not yet chosen a candidate.”
CNN and 2 other articles
880 likely voters
Maine poll sample size
August 31–September 6, 2026
“The CNN polls of Maine and Michigan likely voters were conducted online and by phone from August 31 through September 6, 2026. Results among 880 likely voters in Maine have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.7 percentage points; the margin is 4.1 points among 843 likely voters in Michigan.”
CNN and 2 other articles
18% percent
likely voters who could change their minds or had not chosen a candidate
Maine · August 31–September 6, 2026
“In Maine, 48% of likely voters support Jackson and 45% support Collins, a result within the poll’s margin of sampling error. About 18% say they could change their minds or have not chosen a candidate.”
News Channel 3-12 and 1 other article
Looking Back
61 Day Timeline
Articles published over time. Hover any bar for the period and its article count.
Jul 22
Aug 1
Aug 11
Aug 21
Aug 31
Sep 10
Sep 20
The Story So Far
New development
Collins’s traditional crossover coalition shows signs of breaking toward Jackson
New polling and voter interviews indicate that Collins’s former advantage among independents and moderate Democrats is weakening: Jackson leads among independents, cross-party support is limited, and some past Collins supporters are moving toward Jackson over Collins’s relationship with Donald Trump.
Previously
Maine’s 2026 Senate race is effectively tied: Troy Jackson holds a small but inconsistent polling edge over Susan Collins, while economic pressure, Donald Trump’s unpopularity, and Collins’s crossover strength shape the contest.
History
09/19/2026
The race is now framed more clearly as an effectively tied contest rather than one with a consistent Jackson edge, after a new survey showed Collins slightly ahead. New polling also quantifies Trump’s unpopularity at roughly two-thirds disapproval among Maine voters.
09/15/2026
The race’s narrow Jackson advantage is reinforced across more surveys but remains firmly a toss-up, while new advertising data gives Collins a meaningful campaign-resource edge.
A Fox News survey conducted August 6 to 10 found Troy Jackson narrowly leading Susan Collins among Maine voters as immigration concerns intensified after a Biddeford shooting.
On July 21, a University of New Hampshire Survey Center poll found Troy Jackson 49% and Susan Collins 46% among likely Maine voters for a November Senate matchup.
University of New Hampshire polling conducted July 15-20 shows Troy Jackson slightly ahead of Susan Collins in a hypothetical Maine Senate matchup and leading Democrats in primary testing.
Fox News found Troy Jackson leading Susan Collins 48 percent to 46 percent from August 6-10 among Maine voters, with the result within the margin of error.
Decision Desk HQ shows Democrat Troy Jackson leading Republican Senator Susan Collins 47%-45% in Maine's 2026 Senate race, with both candidates near equal winning odds.
Fox News found Democratic nominee Troy Jackson leading Republican Senator Susan Collins 48% to 46% in Maine on August 6-10, intensifying competition before the November 3 election.
During the 2026 Maine Senate campaign, Democrat Troy Jackson leads Republican Senator Susan Collins narrowly in recent polls, making Maine a pivotal Democratic target.
Troy Jackson narrowly leads Senator Susan Collins in Decision Desk HQ's Maine polling average for the 2026 U.S. Senate election, while both candidates have roughly equal forecasted winning chances.
A CNN/SSRS poll released September 9 found Democrat Troy Jackson leading Republican Sen. Susan Collins 48% to 45% among likely voters in Maine's 2026 Senate race.
CNN and SSRS found Democrat Troy Jackson narrowly leading Republican incumbent Susan Collins among likely voters in Maine, with economic concerns and abortion rights influencing the contest.
CNN ranked Maine second among 2026 Senate contests most likely to change party control after Troy Jackson narrowly led Susan Collins in a poll of Maine likely voters.
CNN/SSRS found Democrat Troy Jackson leading Republican Senator Susan Collins 48 percent to 45 percent among Maine voters surveyed August 31 through September 6, 2026.
9/9/2026 • Polling & Race Ratings • General
CNN / Jennifer Agiesta, Ariel Edwards-Levy, Edward Wu77
CNN and SSRS found Troy Jackson leading Susan Collins 48% to 45% among Maine likely voters in a September 2026 poll, leaving the Senate contest statistically tied.
CNN-SSRS found Troy Jackson narrowly leading Susan Collins in Maine and Abdul El-Sayed narrowly leading Mike Rogers in Michigan from August 31 to September 6, 2026.
In Maine, Troy Jackson is challenging Susan Collins in the 2026 Senate race, with a CNN poll showing a small Jackson lead amid limited crossover support.
CNN/SSRS found Troy Jackson leading Susan Collins by three points among likely Maine voters in an August 31 to September 6 poll, within the margin of error.
In 2026, Maine pollsters and political analysts reported that tariff tensions with Canada and affordability concerns were endangering Susan Collins's reelection prospects.
University of New Hampshire polling in Maine before Democratic nominee selection found Troy Jackson leading Susan Collins 49% to 46% among likely voters.
Susan Collins and Troy Jackson are targeting independent, undecided, and split-ticket voters in Wells, Auburn, Lewiston, Gorham, and York County during Maine's 2026 Senate contest.
Susan Collins and Troy Jackson are competing in Maine's 2026 Senate race, where voter interviews in Wells, Auburn, Lewiston and Gorham show Trump's influence reshaping crossover support.
Quantus Insights found Republican Senator Susan Collins narrowly leading Democratic challenger Troy Jackson among likely Maine voters in a September 2026 Senate race survey.
CNN reported that Democrat Troy Jackson led Republican incumbent Susan Collins 48% to 45% among likely Maine voters weeks before the November 3 midterm elections.
CNN/SSRS found Democrat Troy Jackson leading Republican Sen. Susan Collins 48% to 45% among 880 likely Maine voters surveyed August 31 through September 6.
CNN and SSRS found Troy Jackson leading Susan Collins 48% to 45% among likely Maine voters in a 2026 Senate race shaped by negative views of Collins, Donald Trump, and economic conditions.
CNN and SSRS found no clear leader in Maine's 2026 Senate contest after surveying 880 likely voters statewide from August 31 through September 6, 2026.
CNN and SSRS found Troy Jackson leading Susan Collins 48% to 45% among likely Maine voters in a poll conducted August 31 through September 6 and released September 9.
CNN found Troy Jackson leading Susan Collins 48% to 45% among 880 Maine voters as both campaigns intensified advertising aimed at independents and persuadable voters.
Susan Collins-led polling in Maine followed Graham Platner removal and Troy Jackson replacement, with support reported among working-class voters and non-college-degree voters in Central and Northern Maine.
Susan Collins is challenging for a sixth Senate term against Troy Jackson in Maine, where immigration enforcement and economic concerns are shaping the 2026 contest.
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