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2026 Maine Senate
Bob Dylan
Kavanaugh Vote Drives Abortion Ad Fight
Coverage from WHEC, Mingooland, and others
Abortion-rights groups and Democratic-aligned campaigns are targeting Sen.
Susan Collins in her 2026 Maine Senate contest with advertising that links her 2018 vote to confirm Brett Kavanaugh to the later overturning of Roe v. Wade. Reported efforts include a $250,000 direct-mail campaign and a Planned Parenthood Votes ad buy of about $600,000, while Collins says she supports abortion access and stands by her vote. The issue gives Democrat Troy Jackson and allied groups a prominent line of attack, though reporting indicates economic concerns may rank higher for many voters.
If you read one thing
It brings together the campaign attack, Collins’s response, the scale of spending, and evidence that economic concerns may limit abortion’s electoral salience.
The evidence
It provides reported voter perspectives suggesting the Kavanaugh vote and abortion rights are eroding Collins’s support among some older women.
The counter-case
It presents the counterargument that the Kavanaugh attack may reinforce existing opposition rather than persuade new voters.
Coordinated abortion-focused spending
Abortion-rights groups and Democratic-aligned organizations are using substantial advertising and targeted mail to put Collins’s judicial record before Maine voters. Reported efforts include a $250,000 mail campaign and major ad spending focused on her Kavanaugh vote and other judicial confirmations.
Kavanaugh vote as a central campaign liability
Jackson and allied groups tie Collins’s 2018 Kavanaugh confirmation vote to the later overturning of Roe, challenging her pro-choice identity. Collins stands by the vote and points to her broader abortion-access record, keeping the issue an active campaign contrast.
Abortion’s electoral salience is constrained
Reporting and polling indicate that many Maine voters remain unhappy with Roe’s reversal, but few name abortion as their top voting issue. Economic and household concerns rank higher, leaving the electoral effect of abortion-focused campaigning uncertain.
$250,000 USD
direct-mail campaign spending
“Reproductive Freedom for All launched a $250,000 direct-mail campaign targeting women who support reproductive freedom.”
more than $600,000 USD
advertising spending
“Planned Parenthood’s advocacy arm is spending more than $600,000 on advertisements linking Collins to the end of abortion rights.”
at least $500,000 USD
Planned Parenthood Votes spending on ads
“Democratic ads focus heavily on Collins’ vote for Kavanaugh and accuse her of yielding to Trump. Affordable Maine, a Democratic-aligned advocacy group, has spent nearly $10 million on ads highlighting Collins’ support for other Trump-appointed judges who oppose abortion. Win Senate, a political action committee focused on Collins, has spent an additional $32 million. Planned Parenthood Votes has spent at least $500,000 on ads, including one featuring a woman who regrets voting for Collins because of the Kavanaugh vote.”
all 16 counties
Maine counties represented in the Women for Troy coalition
“Since launching his campaign in July, Jackson has announced a “Women for Troy” coalition with members from all 16 Maine counties and won endorsements from Planned Parenthood and Reproductive Freedom for All.”
nearly $10 million USD
Affordable Maine spending on ads highlighting Collins’ support for Trump-appointed judges who oppose abortion
“Democratic ads focus heavily on Collins’ vote for Kavanaugh and accuse her of yielding to Trump. Affordable Maine, a Democratic-aligned advocacy group, has spent nearly $10 million on ads highlighting Collins’ support for other Trump-appointed judges who oppose abortion. Win Senate, a political action committee focused on Collins, has spent an additional $32 million. Planned Parenthood Votes has spent at least $500,000 on ads, including one featuring a woman who regrets voting for Collins because of the Kavanaugh vote.”
Contested Issue
Will abortion-focused attacks on Susan Collins over her Kavanaugh vote materially expand opposition to her, or mainly reinforce voters who already oppose her?
Interviews with some older former Collins supporters and a Democratic pollster describe the Kavanaugh vote as a break in trust and a source of voter erosion. Political scientist Jim Melcher argues that the attack may chiefly reinforce existing opposition rather than generate substantial new opposition. The disagreement concerns the message’s reach, not whether all voters respond alike.
Meaningful voter erosion
The Kavanaugh vote and abortion issue have weakened Collins among some former supporters, including older women, and may help move them toward Jackson.
Limited incremental effect
The Kavanaugh vote remains a useful attack in broadly pro-choice Maine, but is more likely to reinforce existing Collins opponents than create substantial new opposition.
New reporting reiterates the existing Kavanaugh-focused abortion attack and uncertainty about its electoral impact, without establishing a material change in the contest.
Previously
Democratic-aligned groups are directing substantial advertising and direct mail at Republican Sen. Susan Collins in her 2026 contest with Democrat Troy Jackson, criticizing her 2018 vote to confirm Brett Kavanaugh. Collins says she supports abortion access and stands by that vote, while Jackson promotes his own record and reproductive-rights endorsements. The issue is a prominent campaign message, though the available reporting indicates that economic concerns rank higher for many voters.
The current version largely confirms the existing story, with slightly greater emphasis on Collins’s Kavanaugh vote and Jackson’s challenge among abortion-rights voters. No material new event, actor, or claim is introduced.
The attack has broadened from Collins’s Kavanaugh vote to include her Gorsuch confirmation, while reproductive-rights endorsements further align Jackson’s campaign with the issue.