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Last Update: 09/29/2026 at 4:33 PM EST
El Nino Reclassification and Forecasts
Coverage from Nature, Inside Climate News, and others
Recent studies and forecasts link a prolonged La Nina, a warming tropical baseline, and a developing El Nino to elevated global temperatures.
NOAA has revised its El Nino and La Nina labeling, while seasonal models point to a potentially strong event with regional drought, rainfall, and wildfire implications.
Looking Back
151 Day Timeline
Feb 20
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History
07/22/2026
The story has shifted from a broad climate outlook to a more concrete fisheries-impact narrative centered on El Niño’s effects on ocean conditions and seafood supply chains. The new version adds specific country-level disruptions, species impacts, and ecosystem consequences.
07/22/2026
The story has shifted from a near-term El Niño regional weather-risk narrative to a broader WMO/UN five-year global warming outlook. The new focus is on likely near-term breaches of the 1.5°C threshold and elevated global heat extremes through 2030.
All Articles128 articles
Additional
Nature reports NOAA forecasts a likely El Nino between May and July, with higher chances by December, as tropical Pacific wind dynamics remain the main uncertainty.
5/14/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • Climate Modeling
Fredi Otto and other researchers warn that a developing El Nino could amplify extreme heat, droughts, floods, and wildfire risk this year under a human-warmed baseline.
5/12/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • Impacts & Risks: Extreme Weather Impacts
The World Meteorological Organization and UK Met Office forecast high odds of repeated 1.5C Paris threshold exceedances between 2026 and 2030, with Arctic amplification and regional drought and heat risks.
5/28/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • Climate Modeling
The Bureau of Meteorology declared El Niño in the tropical Pacific and warned climate change could amplify Australian extreme heat, drought-related bushfire risk, and Great Barrier Reef stress.
6/16/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • Impacts & Risks: Extreme Weather Impacts
The Bureau of Meteorology declared El Nino underway in the tropical Pacific and warned on Australia heat and bushfire amplification as global temperatures near 1.5C.
6/16/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • Impacts & Risks: Extreme Weather Impacts
Economists warn that a potentially extreme 2026-27 El Nino, flagged by NOAA in 2026, could disrupt regional harvests and drive food-price shocks lasting into 2028.
7/12/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • Food & Water Security
Economists forecast a very strong 2026-27 El Nino could raise global food prices through 2028, compounding Iran-war inflation impacts.
7/12/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • Food & Water Security
Australia's Bureau of Meteorology projects a developing El Niño may peak near record-strength Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies, increasing odds of top-20% warm temperatures and low rainfall during August to October.
7/16/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • Regional Risk Assessments
The United Nations and the World Meteorological Organization warn that likely El Nino development before September and November could intensify Asian heat, drought, flooding, and public health risks.
6/5/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • Impacts & Risks: Extreme Weather Impacts
NOAA officials reported an El Nino event formation over the Pacific, with a 63% chance of a record-large event and expected impacts on severe storms, heat, and drought.
6/11/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • Impacts & Risks: Extreme Weather Impacts
WMO and the UK Met Office project near-certainty of global temperature records between 2026 and 2030, citing rising CO2 and an El Niño expected late 2026 to early 2027.
5/28/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • Climate Science & Attribution: Temperature Trends
World Meteorological Organization forecasts high-likelihood El Niño formation before November, with UN officials warning of heat and extreme rain and drought risk.
6/2/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • Climate Modeling
Bureau of Meteorology forecasts El Niño development during Australian winter with about a 90% Pacific probability before November, raising expectations of reduced northern rainfall and higher drought and heat risks.
6/3/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • Climate Modeling
Forecast models estimate a 62% chance El Nino develops this summer and persists through year end, increasing drought and heat risks and rainfall anomalies across multiple regions.
4/13/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • Climate Modeling
Forecast centers project a strong El Nino may develop later in the year, potentially reaching super-event thresholds and increasing global drought and flood risks.
4/14/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • Regional Risk Assessments
NOAA and the Japan Meteorological Agency declared El Nino onset as models project a likely transition to strong warming in the central-eastern Pacific for at least six months.
6/12/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • Impacts & Risks: Extreme Weather Impacts
NOAA announced a very strong El Nino has begun and expects drought and heavy rainfall risks that could disrupt agriculture and food security as global warming raises extreme-weather intensity.
6/16/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • Food & Water Security
Peruvian officials and international researchers describe El Niño-induced ocean changes that strain anchovy stocks while boosting some warm-water fisheries as consumers face price fluctuations.
7/8/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • Ecosystem & Biodiversity Impacts
Copernicus Climate Change Service and ECMWF forecasts in 2026 indicate a record-strong El Niño peaking in December 2026 and affecting global weather through 2027.
7/10/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • Climate Science & Attribution: Temperature Trends
ECMWF forecast data project central equatorial Pacific sea-surface temperatures could reach around 3 C above average late in the year, raising risk of a super El Nino with broad climate impacts.
5/6/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • Climate Modeling
El Niño conditions returning in 2024 are expected to intensify heat and hydrologic extremes across regions, increasing drought and food system risks.
6/24/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • Impacts & Risks: Extreme Weather Impacts
Scripps climate modelers in Science Advances (date unspecified) assessed marine cloud brightening over the Pacific to estimate impacts on super El Nino events.
7/8/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • Climate Modeling
Australia's Bureau of Meteorology forecast a strong El Nino in the tropical Pacific for late 2026, with excessive Americas rainfall and drought risk in Asia.
6/16/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • Food & Water Security
James Hansen and colleagues forecast 2026 as the warmest year on record as El Nino likely replaces La Nina, with uncertainty from the UK Met Office.
5/1/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • Temperature Trends
A modelling study proposes marine cloud brightening over the eastern Pacific to dampen El Niño warming, but results suggest possible earlier and stronger La Niña impacts.
7/8/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • Climate Modeling
Forecast super El Nino conditions into 2027 are assessed to increase food, flooding, wildfire, energy, and conflict risks, disproportionately affecting poorer populations.
6/9/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • Impacts & Risks: Extreme Weather Impacts
NOAA announced Pacific El Nino onset with a 63% chance of sea surface temperatures exceeding 2.0 C, while Israel and the United States opposed a UN climate obligations resolution.
6/14/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • Climate Science & Attribution: Temperature Trends
WMO increased confidence in a strong El Nino forecast during coming months, projecting higher global temperatures and regional dryness into 2027.
7/3/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • Climate Modeling
NOAA, NASA, and Copernicus reported May 2026 as the second-warmest May since 1850, alongside record burned area and near-record low sea ice amid El Niño development signals.
6/10/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • Climate Science & Attribution: Temperature Trends
Colorado State University forecast a 2026 Atlantic hurricane season with reduced activity driven by El Nino, while major hurricane landfall probabilities remain elevated for the U.S. and Caribbean.
6/11/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • Climate Modeling
A 2026-27 El Niño forecast using 14 models projects record-strength warming in the Niño3.4 region, with major rainfall and wildfire risk implications.
7/14/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • Climate Modeling
Fourteen seasonal forecast models project a potentially record-strength 2026-27 El Niño, with NOAA indices suggesting a 77% chance of surpassing past records.
7/14/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • Climate Modeling
Climate and agriculture experts warn that super El Nino and human-induced warming will increase extreme heat and drought risks, damaging harvests and worsening food insecurity.
5/19/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • Food & Water Security
Late fall 2026 forecast models project a 2-in-3 chance of strong El Nino, with marine heat-wave risks highlighted across major ocean regions.
6/12/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • Impacts & Risks: Extreme Weather Impacts
Australian Bureau of Meteorology declared El Nino active on June 16 after meeting Pacific temperature and trade-wind criteria, with implications for Australian drought and heat risk.
6/17/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • Regional Risk Assessments
Forecasters expect a strong El Niño later in 2026, with rainfall and irrigation disruptions raising rice yield and price risks in major producing regions.
6/29/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • Food & Water Security
NOAA forecasts more than 60% odds of a super El Niño by year end, raising risks to marine ecosystems and Peru anchoveta fisheries.
6/17/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • Ecosystem & Biodiversity Impacts
NOAA says El Nino has officially begun and could be very strong this season, increasing drought and heavy rainfall risks for agricultural production and food security across multiple regions.
6/21/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • Impacts & Risks: Extreme Weather Impacts
Asia is facing forecast Super El Nino conditions that could intensify drought, heat, hydropower shortfalls, grid demand spikes, and related health risks this summer.
5/28/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • Impacts & Risks: Extreme Weather Impacts
Australia's Bureau of Meteorology warned a strong El Niño is developing in the tropical Pacific, with impacts on rainfall, heat, and food security through late 2026.
6/16/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • Regional Risk Assessments
NOAA confirmed El Niño onset with a 63% likelihood of historic intensity by late fall or early winter, raising regional extreme-weather risks worldwide.
6/12/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • Impacts & Risks: Extreme Weather Impacts
Copernicus reported April as the joint third-warmest month globally, citing reduced sea ice and widespread marine heatwaves tied to an emerging El Niño.
5/18/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • Climate Science & Attribution: Temperature Trends
NOAA released Atlantic and eastern and central Pacific hurricane outlooks, forecasting below-average Atlantic activity and above-average eastern Pacific activity based on developing El Niño conditions.
5/26/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • Climate Modeling
NOAA forecasts stronger El Nino this fall and estimates elevated odds of very strong warming in the equatorial Pacific, with increased risks of droughts, floods, and cyclone activity changes across multiple regions.
6/15/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • Climate Science & Attribution: Temperature Trends
NOAA announced El Nino arrival and a 63 percent chance of a very strong event during November-January, with major drought and flood risks for multiple regions.
6/12/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • Impacts & Risks: Extreme Weather Impacts
Copernicus and NOAA forecast El Niño formation in summer 2026 with persistence into 2026-end or 2027 after near-record March sea surface warming.
4/10/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • Temperature Trends
Australia’s early-winter temperatures in June 2026 are likely to stay above normal as El Nino drives dryness and global warming shifts atmospheric circulation.
6/29/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • Climate Science & Attribution: Temperature Trends
El Niño and positive Southern Annular Mode helped drive warm, rainy weather in Australia’s alpine regions during early July 2026, worsening poor snow depth.
7/10/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • Climate Science & Attribution: Temperature Trends
Rice University researchers discuss how strengthening El Nino later in the year could affect coastal storms, extreme rainfall, and flooding risk in regions including Houston.
6/15/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • Impacts & Risks: Extreme Weather Impacts
ICAR-CMFRI warned on 10 July that El Niño-driven marine heatwaves in India’s northern Indian Ocean could reduce oil sardine availability by April or May 2027.
7/20/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • Food & Water Security
NOAA officials and forecasters report a potentially historic El Niño forming in the Pacific, with South Florida hurricane and coastal flooding risks shaped by wind shear and sea-level rise.
5/19/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • Impacts & Risks: Extreme Weather Impacts
WMO and NOAA forecast a strengthening El Niño during 2026, with elevated drought, heavy rainfall, and heat-wave risks that require early government and humanitarian preparation.
6/3/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • Impacts & Risks: Extreme Weather Impacts
Axel Timmermann and researchers report an 80 percent El Nino development chance by September, with climate change expected to amplify impacts across the Pacific and beyond.
6/3/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • Climate Modeling
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center forecasts El Niño persistence into early spring 2027 and an 81% chance of a very strong event during October to December, with regional impacts and model spread on peak intensity.
7/9/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • Climate Science & Attribution: Temperature Trends
Katherine Ricke and coauthors reported modeled marine cloud brightening effects on El Nino using Australian bushfire aerosol analogues, while warning about scientific and political risks.
7/12/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • Climate Modeling
NOAA assessed a 61% chance of El Nino development on April 9, with potential for strong event impacts on monsoons, hurricanes, drought risk, and temperature records.
4/10/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • Extreme Weather Attribution
Copernicus Climate Change Service, via ECMWF, said April sea-surface temperatures nearly matched 2024 records as developing El Niño raises risk of extreme weather and a possible hottest year in 2027.
5/8/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • Climate Science & Attribution: Temperature Trends
NOAA confirmed El Nino development and forecasts a 63% chance of an ultra-strong event impacting global weather and regional disaster risk late fall and early winter.
6/11/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • Climate Modeling
The World Meteorological Organization and the UK Met Office project 2026 to 2030 exceedances of the Paris 1.5 C warming limit, with strong Arctic amplification and higher drought and wildfire risks.
5/28/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • Climate Modeling
NOAA forecasts an 81% chance that El Nino will become very strong by fall, with likely fall-winter drought, rainfall, and temperature impacts worldwide.
7/9/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • Climate Science & Attribution: Temperature Trends
WMO and EU Copernicus scientists report record 2025 warmth and hazards across Europe while forecasting a strong El Niño that may elevate temperatures through 2027.
4/29/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • Temperature Trends
World Meteorological Organization and UK Met Office forecasts from United Nations climate projections predict frequent 1.5 C threshold exceedance and Arctic overheating through 2030.
5/28/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • Climate Science & Attribution: Temperature Trends
US Climate Prediction Center forecasts increased El Niño formation risk by late July, with potential strong-to-very-strong conditions affecting drought, flooding, energy, and food systems across multiple regions.
5/31/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • Climate Modeling
NOAA forecasts potential El Nino strengthening this fall, citing elevated tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures and expected North American weather shifts.
6/13/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
NOAA reported the start of El Niño and a high likelihood of very strong conditions, warning of regional drought and heavy rainfall impacts on agriculture and food security.
6/21/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • Impacts & Risks: Extreme Weather Impacts
Super El Nino impacts renewable generation in California, southeastern China, the Pacific Northwest, South America, and southern Africa, risking temporary emissions increases.
6/25/2026 • Clean Energy & Emissions • Mitigation: Energy Transition: Renewable Energy Deployment
Copernicus and NOAA forecast El Niño development after near-record April sea-surface temperatures, raising the probability of very strong warming during the Northern Hemisphere winter.
5/12/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • Climate Science & Attribution: Temperature Trends
A study using 13 climate models reports that super El Nino-related North American weather impacts weaken and shift eastward once warming exceeds about 2C.
6/17/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • Climate Modeling
WMO projections forecast 2026 to 2030 temperatures likely exceeding the Paris 1.5C limit, with faster Arctic warming and increased Amazon drought and wildfire risk through 2030.
5/28/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • Climate Science & Attribution: Temperature Trends
NOAA said El Niño is arriving and may become very strong by November-January, increasing global heat and regional drought and food security risks.
6/13/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • Climate Modeling
NOAA reported La Niña ended in 2024-2025 and said El Niño is likely to develop later in 2026, affecting hurricane seasons and winter precipitation planning.
4/9/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • Climate Modeling
NOAA forecast released May 14 predicts El Nino emergence with an 82% chance in two to three months and possible persistence through winter 2026-27.
5/14/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • Climate Modeling
Copernicus reported record ocean warmth in April 2026 and reduced Antarctic sea ice, while NOAA said 2026 is virtually certain to be among the 10 warmest years.
5/18/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • Climate Science & Attribution: Temperature Trends
WMO forecasts an 80% chance of El Niño developing by August and a 90% chance persisting through November, driven by warm tropical Pacific waters.
6/2/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • Climate Science & Attribution: Temperature Trends
NOAA and forecast models project higher odds of a super El Niño forming later in 2025, with global temperature spikes and regional rainfall shifts expected through winter.
5/7/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • Climate Modeling
NOAA forecasts strengthening El Niño to reach historic intensity probabilities in fall and early winter, increasing global drought, flood, heat-wave, and wildfire risks.
6/11/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • Climate Modeling
NOAA expects a very strong El Nino and Vermont officials plan around probabilistic seasonal temperature and precipitation forecasts influenced more by North Atlantic and Arctic weather.
7/12/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • Climate Modeling
World Meteorological Organization forecasts mid-year El Nino development, warning of higher global temperature and rainfall extremes as Pacific subsurface heat intensifies.
5/8/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • Climate Modeling
World Meteorological Organisation reporting says a potential El Nino developing over New Zealand winter could raise global temperatures and reshape regional extremes.
3/24/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • Temperature Trends
NOAA forecast updates and Columbia University assessments in the equatorial Pacific indicate rising odds of El Niño development between June and January.
3/22/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • Extreme Weather Attribution
World Meteorological Organization provides ENSO outlook for March-May 2026 with rising El Nino risk worldwide.
3/2/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • Temperature Trends
NOAA forecasts El Nino forming in summer and persisting through 2026 across global regions.
3/16/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • Temperature Trends
World Meteorological Organization announced El Niño onset in late May, forecasting Super El Niño conditions and warning of global heat and extreme-weather impacts.
6/3/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • Impacts & Risks: Extreme Weather Impacts
El Nino forecast develops by summer 2026, affecting weather and temperatures worldwide.
3/15/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • Extreme Weather Impacts
Meteorologists predict El Nino may emerge between June and August 2026, potentially raising global temperatures and altering hurricane activity.
3/16/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • Temperature Trends
NOAA forecasters expect El Nino to emerge by mid 2026, affecting global weather patterns.
3/15/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • Temperature Trends
NOAA forecasts El Nino onset by mid 2026 with 62 percent probability, signaling potential global weather shifts.
3/15/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • Temperature Trends
Forecast centers warn that a developing El Nino this year could raise global temperatures and intensify extreme weather across the United States and adjacent regions.
3/12/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • Climate Modeling
Researchers forecast a strong El Nino by late 2026 globally, with temperatures elevated in 2027.
3/12/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • Climate Modeling
Bureau of Meteorology outlooks project continued warm, dry conditions in Australia after multiple capitals set early-winter temperature records during June 2026.
6/30/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • Climate Science & Attribution: Temperature Trends
NOAA issues El Nino Watch with 62 percent odds of formation June through August, signaling potential global temperature rise and shifts in hurricane season.
3/14/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • Climate Modeling
NOAA issues El Nino Watch with six month outlook predicting El Nino formation between June and August across the Pacific and Americas.
3/14/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • Climate Modeling
NOAA forecasts El Nino forming between June and August 2026, globally increasing temperatures and shifting regional weather.
3/12/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • Temperature Trends
NOAA forecasts El Nino to emerge this summer globally with regional weather changes through 2027.
3/12/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • Temperature Trends
NOAA forecasts El Nino development with 62 percent odds for June through August, potentially influencing global temperatures and the Atlantic and Pacific hurricane seasons.
3/14/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • Climate Modeling
Meteorologists warn of a potential super El Nino, forecast to emerge in coming months, affecting weather across the United States, Canada, and the Pacific Rim.
3/16/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • Climate Modeling
NOAA warns of an El Nino watch, raising the likelihood of warmer global temperatures and altered Atlantic and Pacific hurricane seasons, starting in the second half of the year.
3/14/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • Climate Modeling
CPC forecasters project El Nino formation by summer worldwide, with rising temperatures and impacts on crops and drought risk.
3/13/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • Climate Modeling
NOAA forecasts El Nino development between June and August in the Pacific basin, with global temperature and weather pattern implications.
3/14/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • Climate Modeling
NOAA reports El Nino development with 62 percent odds for June to August.
3/14/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • Climate Modeling
NOAA forecasters project El Niño to develop between June and August 2026, influencing global temperatures and regional rainfall through 2027.
3/12/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • Temperature Trends
NOAA forecasts a likely strong El Niño this summer that could raise global temperatures and alter regional weather through 2027.
3/12/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • Temperature Trends
WMO reports El Nino returns in 2026, with global temperature implications and regional flood risks across Peru, Ecuador, and adjacent South American regions.
3/4/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • Temperature Trends
WMO and international monitoring centers report El Nino returning in 2026 worldwide, with potential global temperature rise and rainfall pattern shifts.
3/4/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • Temperature Trends
Super El Niño risk is discussed as increasing chances of reduced wind, solar, and hydropower output, tightening grid reliability planning needs in multiple regions.
7/1/2026 • Clean Energy & Emissions • Mitigation: Energy Transition: Renewable Energy Deployment
During El Niño and major storm events, reduced solar, wind, and hydropower output increases grid reliance on dispatchable fossil generation and planning needs for reserve capacity.
7/1/2026 • Clean Energy & Emissions • Mitigation: Energy Transition: Renewable Energy Deployment
NOAA-related seasonal forecast assessments in July 2026 project record-strength 2026-27 El Niño using Niño 3.4 and NOAA relative ONI, with strongest global temperature impacts expected in 2027.
7/13/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • Climate Science & Attribution: Temperature Trends
NOAA forecasts El Nino development by June to August with global temperature and hurricane season implications.
3/14/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • Temperature Trends
Japanese researchers and NOAA scientists report that a prolonged La Nina, followed by an El Nino transition and greenhouse gas forcing, increased Earth's energy imbalance and global temperatures in 2022-2025.
2/20/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • Temperature Trends
NOAA updates El Nino labeling this year in the United States to reflect tropical warming and influence global temperature records.
2/23/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • Temperature Trends
NOAA says El Nino may form between July and September, with forecast uncertainty and potential for higher global temperatures.
3/3/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • General
NOAA forecasts El Nino formation between July and September worldwide, increasing temperatures and shifting rainfall patterns.
3/3/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • Temperature Trends
Japanese researchers and U.S. meteorologists say a 2020-2023 triple-dip La Nina and revised NOAA indexing contributed to a global temperature jump beginning in 2023.
2/20/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • Temperature Trends
Shaun Martin at WWF urges climate adaptation planning in the United States as a 2026 El Nino forecast from the World Meteorological Organization could drive floods, droughts, and extreme heat.
7/6/2026 • Adaptation & Resilience • Adaptation & Resilience: Climate Adaptation Strategies
James Hansen and coauthors say El Nino forecasts for 2026-27 can improve climate dynamics understanding using upper-300-meter ocean heat content metrics.
4/15/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • Climate Modeling
Hansen, Kharecha, Morgan, and Vest project 2026 as potentially the warmest instrumental year based on higher climate sensitivity, larger aerosol cooling, and a developing strong El Nino.
6/12/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • Climate Science & Attribution: Temperature Trends
NOAA projects El Nino development between July and September; global temperatures could rise temporarily worldwide.
3/2/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • Temperature Trends
NOAA forecasts El Nino development in July-September with 50-60 percent probability worldwide, potentially raising global temperatures.
3/2/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • Temperature Trends
WMO reports El Nino and La Nina dynamics tied to record 2024 temperatures and near term forecasts through 2026.
3/3/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • Temperature Trends
NOAA projects El Nino development with 50-60 percent likelihood in July through September, with global temperature and rainfall implications.
3/2/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • Temperature Trends
NOAA reports a 50-60 percent chance of El Nino developing from July to September, potentially lifting global temperatures toward record highs.
3/2/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • Temperature Trends
University of Tokyo researchers and NOAA link a prolonged La Nina and an updated El Nino index to a 2022 energy imbalance increase, raising global temperatures worldwide in 2022-2025.
2/21/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • Temperature Trends
Forecasts project a possible El Nino in 2026-2027 while ocean heat acceleration and higher climate sensitivity are linked to faster sea-surface warming.
3/20/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • Temperature Trends
NOAA forecasts El Nino now
3/3/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • Temperature Trends
Scientists attribute higher global temperatures from 2023 to 2025 to extended La Nina and shifting El Nino cycles amid ongoing warming.
2/23/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • Temperature Trends
WMO warned in 2025 that record excess heat driven by greenhouse gases is rapidly warming oceans and intensifying extreme events, with El Niño expected to increase temperatures into 2026 and 2027.
3/23/2026 • Climate Science & Impacts • Temperature Trends
Pacific Islands Forum activates an emergency response mechanism in response to an Iran-linked fuel shock while forecasts warn of very strong El Nino risk across 2026-early 2027.
7/6/2026 • Adaptation & Resilience • Adaptation & Resilience: Climate Adaptation Strategies
Roemer of Best Weather Inc. links El Nino and climate-driven heat to higher wet-bulb health risk and weather uncertainty for corn, soy, and coffee markets.
7/6/2026 • Economy, Business & Innovation • Economics & Finance: Climate Economics